Strait of Hormuz: Iran Says Oman Deal in Final Stages, but US Conditions Stall Reopening
Iran said on August 9, 2026 that a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz was in its "final stages," but insisted the United States "must act" before the waterway can reopen — the latest twist in a crisis that has choked roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows since February 28, 2026. EU natural gas (TTF) prices rose to €57.45/MWh on August 10, up 3.43% day-on-day, as uncertainty over LNG resumption from the Persian Gulf intensified. Trading Economics
The Strait has been largely blocked by Iran for over five months, in what is now widely referred to as the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. The chokepoint, which normally handles about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, saw no Very Large Crude Carrier or LNG tanker transits for at least two consecutive days in mid-July amid escalating US-Iran attacks across the Gulf. Reuters
Negotiations have lurched between optimism and stalemate. On August 5, US President Donald Trump said a deal could come "as early as Wednesday," and Axios reported the US aimed for that day's announcement of an interim agreement with Iran and Oman. By August 6, Iran said a deal was close to being finalised, with reports suggesting Tehran would have control over the waterway. Oil futures settled more than $3 a barrel higher that same day as Iran's parliament reviewed a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait. Reuters
By August 8, Iran tempered expectations, saying a deal was close but "will not open the waterway by itself." Oman, mediating the talks, reported positive negotiations and condemned ship attacks. The same day, it emerged that Iran had issued a list of demands making reopening contingent on conditions including US compensation for its "violations." New York Times
On August 9, Iran said it was close to agreeing shipping lanes with Oman but reiterated that the US would have to meet certain conditions. The messaging has been consistently two-track: the Oman channel is in its "final stages," while Washington must separately act. The demands complicate what negotiators on all sides had framed as an interim agreement. Reuters
Trump subsequently posted that the Strait would reopen without a tolling system implemented by Iran, which eased market fears and contributed to a tumble in TTF and Asian LNG prices alongside growing reopening hopes. Natural Gas Intelligence
Those gains were partially unwound by August 10's TTF move higher, reflecting the whipsaw dynamic markets have faced for months. European gas prices were muted as recently as mid-July, when the outlook for a reopening push was unclear. Investing.com
Iranian strikes on Strait shipping have been coupled with increased attacks by the Houthis, Iran's Yemen-based allies, adding a second layer of operational risk for any resumption of tanker traffic even if a political agreement is reached. Reuters
The pattern here is worth flagging for anyone pricing energy or shipping risk. Every headline suggesting imminent resolution has been followed by a qualifier from Tehran that resets the timeline. The Oman deal may be in its "final stages," but Iran has been explicit that it is necessary, not sufficient. The US compensation demand, the parliamentary bill targeting US and Israeli vessels, and the continued Houthi threat each represent independent veto points over whether the Strait actually reopens. The market is not just pricing the probability of an agreement; it is pricing the probability that an agreement translates into freely flowing traffic. Those are very different bets.
For TTF and Asian LNG buyers, the distinction matters acutely. Persian Gulf LNG represents a material share of global supply, and the August 10 price action suggests the market is repricing the gap between diplomatic progress and physical resumption. Oil futures have shown similar sensitivity, with the August 6 $3-plus rally driven not by a breakdown in talks but by a legislative maneuver in Tehran. The crisis has created a structural premium in energy prices that will persist until tankers are moving through the Strait under credible security guarantees, not merely on the strength of a signed document.
