Luxon's leadership under pressure again as National caucus called to online meeting

Christopher Luxon's grip on the National Party leadership is being questioned again after a week of communication gaffes and a fresh report that his MPs are unhappy, with the caucus called to an online meeting on Tuesday night while Parliament is in recess (RNZ).

The NZ Herald reported that National MPs spent a day on the phones, with one MP confirming they had fielded "several" phone calls about a potential leadership change. RNZ spoke to about ten National MPs on Monday night and received a mixture of responses, including denials that there were leadership murmurings.

Luxon told RNZ he was "very confident" in his leadership and had the support of his caucus.

The current round of speculation follows a series of missteps. Luxon apologised to leaders from the Rotorua Business Chamber after criticising them for having a "parent-child mentality" and relying on government too much. He faced questions about why he was not reprimanding Foreign Minister Winston Peters after Peters labelled comments about another MP as "racist". He also had to justify his use of a New Zealand Defence Force plane to fly home from a National Party fundraising dinner. On the same day he faced questions about the Defence Force flight, unemployment figures showed the jobless rate at an 11-year high.

Luxon also made a captain's call to hold a referendum on MMP if re-elected, a move that blindsided his own caucus.

The pressure is not new. Luxon called a confidence vote on his leadership in April, prompted by speculation about whether he was up to the job and had caucus backing. He said he was "absolutely not" considering standing down and said he had the skills to lead the National Party and the country (RNZ). Following that vote, Luxon said intense media speculation about his leadership and "who said what to whom" had begun the previous week, and that his caucus subsequently had a "good, honest" discussion (RNZ).

In the days before that vote, the NZ Herald reported Luxon faced intense pressure in the last week of the previous sitting block, a period that culminated in a possible leadership challenge that fortnight (NZ Herald). Luxon was joined by MP Dan Bidois when he addressed speculation that his position was under threat (RNZ).

Luxon blamed the leaks on a "small handful of dissatisfied MPs" and said he would address the matter with them. He later claimed five "moaning and frustrated" MPs were leaking to the media amid ongoing leadership speculation (NZ Herald), before walking back those comments (NZ Herald). The National MPs alleged to be among those causing trouble denied leaking to the media (NZ Herald). Luxon said he would not step down despite polling drops and reports of unrest within the National Party.

The polling backdrop has worsened. An RNZ-Reid Research poll in July had National down 2.1 points to 28.7 percent, its fourth consecutive decline in the Reid Research series and its weakest result since Luxon became leader in November 2021.

Looking at what this means for the government's position, the pattern is now familiar: a polling decline, a gaffe or cluster of gaffes, leaks from within caucus, and a leader forced to insist he has the numbers. Luxon survived a confidence vote in April, but the issues driving that challenge, communication stumbles, internal dissatisfaction, and softening poll numbers, have not abated. The Tuesday night caucus meeting, held during a parliamentary recess, will be watched closely for whether it settles the caucus or deepens the fault lines. The MMP referendum announcement, made without caucus input, adds a policy dimension to what has until now been primarily a question of leadership style and political management.