Hipkins defends Labour's standing as poll slumps and coalition holds

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has defended his performance after a Taxpayers' Union Curia poll showed Labour dropping 3.7 points to 27.8 percent, its lowest reading in that poll series, while the governing coalition retained enough support to form a government.

The poll, published on Curia Market Research's website on 10 August 2026, put National on 31.0 percent (39 seats), Labour on 29.0 percent (37 seats), the Greens on 10.4 percent (13 seats), ACT on 7.5 percent (9 seats), NZ First on 9.8 percent (12 seats), and Te Pāti Māori below the threshold. The Opportunities Party (TOP) crossed the 5 percent mark, sufficient to enter Parliament. (Curia Market Research; 1News; NZ Herald)

Hipkins' own preferred prime minister rating in the Curia poll rose 0.6 points to 19.8 percent. But the headline party-vote number was the more consequential figure: it represented Labour's lowest result in the Curia series and pulled the party below the 30 percent mark for the first time in that poll.

Speaking on RNZ's Morning Report, Hipkins dismissed the poll as the product of a "right-wing lobby group" that wanted to keep the current government in office. He was pressed on the consistency of that position: the same poll in March, showing a drop in National's support, had been treated as consequential for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership. Hipkins did not concede the parallel.

An RNZ Reid Research poll conducted between March and July also recorded a drop in Labour support, though that poll put Labour at 34 percent, down 1.6 points. Both the Curia and Reid Research polls showed the coalition able to form a government.

Hipkins maintained that Labour was "significantly better" than at the 2023 election, in which the party was, by his own acknowledgement, "annihilated." He said the election campaign was just getting under way and that his task in the coming months was to campaign on Labour's policy platform: capping public transport fares, making GP visits free, and giving small businesses easier access to government contracts, with a target of 15 percent of government contracts going to small businesses and start-ups.

He also pointed to what he described as a public mood of disaffection. People were "disaffected and disillusioned with politics," Hipkins said, referencing racist arguments and politicians debating whether English should be an official language.

On leadership, Hipkins was firm: he would lead Labour into the next election. He said he was "absolutely committed" to leading Labour into government after the election. He did not specify whether he would continue as leader if Labour failed to win.

Hipkins also used the moment to definitively rule out working with New Zealand First in any government he leads, closing off a question that had followed him through the previous polling cycle. The rule-out came on the back of the 3.7-point slump recorded in the Curia poll. (RNZ)

The wider political backdrop is one in which both major-party leaders are under pressure. Luxon's grip on the National leadership was again being questioned after a week of communication missteps and a report that his MPs were unhappy. On the previous Monday, Luxon apologised to leaders from the Rotorua Business Chamber after telling them they had a "parent-child mentality" and relied on government too much. Hipkins, who had a policy announcement in Rotorua the following day, was asked whether the timing was designed to shadow Luxon's appearance at a Rotorua Business Chamber event. He did not say. He did offer a line: "Treating people like adults is generally a good approach to take when you're a politician."

The polling picture is not straightforward for either bloc. The July RNZ Reid Research poll found more than half of those surveyed could be persuaded to vote for a different party, with Labour on 34 percent, the Greens on 10.3 percent, and Te Pāti Māori on 2.3 percent. A separate Reid Research question on whether a new leader would save National or Labour found 44.7 percent disagreed and 23.4 percent were unsure. In March, Hipkins led the preferred prime minister measure at 20.7 percent while Luxon's rating dropped.

The broader context here is a volatile electorate with a high proportion of movable voters, two leaders whose positions are being questioned from within their own camps, and a third party in TOP now polling at parliamentary threshold. Hipkins' strategy is to frame the campaign as a choice between Labour's cost-of-living policies and a government whose own leader has stumbled publicly. The risk for Labour is that the trend line in both major poll series is moving in the wrong direction, and the rule-out of NZ First narrows the party's coalition options to the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, assuming those parties hold their respective positions. For Luxon, the Rotorua apology and the internal dissatisfaction reported by RNZ add to the perception of a government under strain even as its polling numbers remain sufficient to govern.

Neither leader can take much comfort from the numbers as they stand. The coalition can form a government, but only by the slimmest of margins. Labour is polling better than 2023 but worse than its mid-winter peak. And the electorate, by its own account, has not settled.