RBA Holds Cash Rate at 4.35% as Housing Downturn Weighs on Growth Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the official cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026, with the board voting unanimously to maintain the target while warning that further tightening remains on the table if upside risks to inflation materialise (The Guardian).

The decision marks the second consecutive hold since the RBA raised the cash rate by 75 basis points between February and June 2026 to reach the current 4.35% level (Reuters). At its June meeting, the board held steady and cautioned that rate hikes might not be over. Today's statement reiterated that hawkish bias: the RBA said it would continue to increase the cash rate target further if upside risks to inflation materialise, even as it acknowledged that inflation remains too high.

Headline inflation was 3.8% in the year to June 2026 and is not projected to return towards the RBA's 2.5% target until late 2027. That gap, between current inflation and the target band, is the core tension running through the board's deliberations. The RBA's May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy baseline forecasts assumed a market-implied cash rate path rising to 4.70% by end-2026 (RBA). Over a third of economists surveyed by Reuters in early May expected two or more additional rate hikes by year-end (Reuters). The board has so far declined to follow that path, but has not closed the door.

What is shifting is the housing market, and the RBA devoted unusual attention to its transmission into the broader economy. House prices had risen about 5% over the past year and were up roughly 50% since 2020, the bank noted. Now that cycle is reversing. ANZ economists forecast capital city home prices to fall at least 5% from their early-2026 peaks, with Sydney projected to decline 14.5% and Melbourne 12.8%. The RBA cited its own research suggesting the federal budget's tax reforms alone would leave house prices up to 5% lower in the long term.

The wealth effect is already visible in the data. Investor loan commitments in June 2026 had fallen by roughly a quarter compared to the start of the year as a share of total housing credit. Westpac reported a 20% fall in home loan applications since mid-May, attributing the decline to interest rate rises rather than the federal budget. Some banks have begun cutting advertised mortgage rates by as much as the equivalent of an interest rate hike as the housing market slows, suggesting competitive pressure is building even as the official cash rate holds firm.

The RBA predicted household spending would be weaker than expected in 2026 as falling house prices reduce household wealth and lead to fewer home sales. This, in turn, would slow income growth. The bank forecast economic growth to hold at about 1.4% over 2026. However, it also predicted that a recovery in house prices, combined with falling interest rates, could push per-capita economic activity back up by 2028, a timeline that places any meaningful rebound well beyond the current tightening cycle.

Household buffers remain substantial. Seven in eight mortgage borrowers held almost a year or more worth of repayments in their offset and redraw accounts, a factor that has likely slowed the transmission of rate hikes into consumption and helps explain why the RBA has had to move further than many peers to achieve the same disinflationary effect.

Market reaction to the decision was decisive. The Australian sharemarket rose while the Australian dollar and bond yields fell, a combination suggesting traders are pricing in lower interest rates in future rather than the additional hike the RBA explicitly warned about. Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the hold, saying it would come as a relief to Australians with a mortgage.

Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, offered a reading that splits the difference: the RBA's statement suggested the bank increasingly feels its job may be done, but another rate rise in 2026 could not be fully ruled out. That framing captures the central ambiguity. The board held unanimously, signalled patience, and yet retained an explicit hiking bias against an inflation path that will not reach target for more than a year. The housing downturn is doing some of the disinflationary work for the RBA, but whether that voluntary tightening will be sufficient, or whether it overshoots into a sharper contraction in household spending, is the balance the board must now weigh at every meeting through to late 2027.