A Very Strong El Niño Is Now Almost Certain — and Global Food Systems Are in Its Path
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the probability of a "very strong" El Niño during October–December 2026 at 81%, with only a one-in-five chance the event remains weaker than that threshold. The assessment, published August 10 in NOAA's ENSO evolution status and forecast bulletin, represents the strongest probabilistic language U.S. forecasters have used for the 2026 event to date and aligns with the World Meteorological Organization's July 31 forecast that a strong El Niño was developing and expected to intensify through August–October.
The trajectory has sharpened rapidly since early June. On June 2, the WMO's El Niño/La Niña Update indicated an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. By mid-June, NOAA forecasters were already predicting a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures in the Niño-monitored Pacific region would exceed the 2.0°C anomaly mark — the conventional benchmark for a strong event. On July 9, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño conditions were already present and would strengthen through year's end, with a 97% probability of persistence through early spring 2027. The WMO, for its part, forecast above-normal temperatures worldwide in connection with the intensifying event.
El Niño typically peaks between November and February. What is unusual about the current forecast cycle is the degree of inter-agency convergence on a very strong outcome this early in the window. When both NOAA's dynamical models and the WMO's multi-model ensemble assign such high probabilities to the upper intensity tier, the scenarios that matter shift from whether the event will be significant to how significant, and where the teleconnection impacts — simultaneous weather anomalies across continents — will be most disruptive.
The WMO has described El Niño as one of Earth's most influential climate patterns, capable of shifting rainfall, heat, drought, and storm activity across continents. Past major El Niño events have been linked to crop failures, wildfire risk, water shortages, stronger storms, and economic disruption. Those risks are not abstract this time. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization expects agricultural drought from the 2026 El Niño to hit hardest in the Sahel, across Southern Africa, and in South America. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the regions hardest hit by food insecurity, according to Reuters reporting from August 6. In Sudan, El Niño-induced rainfall shortages in the rain-fed sorghum and millet belts of Gedaref and Sennar could worsen existing crop failures.
Agricultural exposure extends well beyond the Global South. Drought conditions associated with a "super" El Niño have been projected to delay crop plantings and reduce wheat yields in the United States, while hot weather linked to the event has already affected Asian crop production. El Niño events have historically led to major crop losses, food inflation, and increased food insecurity across parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The teleconnection mechanism — whereby Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies propagate into distant atmospheric circulation patterns — is what makes a single oceanic event a global agricultural risk factor.
The current ENSO cycle is also unfolding against an already warm baseline. The WMO reported that Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record in 2026, and separately published findings on ocean warming, marine heatwaves, and sea-level rise in early July. An El Niño superimposed on elevated background warming increases the likelihood that temperature anomalies in the teleconnection regions — including those critical to staple grain production — exceed historical El Niño analogues.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has stated that El Niño forcing will likely continue to impact the contiguous United States heading into September. The WMO, under Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, has forecast significant shifts for the June–July–August 2026 season and has urged early action in light of the extreme weather the event is expected to produce.
Looking at what this means for planners across food security, disaster risk reduction, and commodity markets: the convergence of NOAA's 81% very strong probability, the WMO's intensification forecast, and the FAO's geographically specific drought projections gives decision-makers a relatively narrow and well-defined risk window. The seasonal lag between Pacific SST anomalies and their downstream agricultural impacts means that the October–December peak period the models are now honing in on will translate into food system stress in the first and second quarters of 2027. Regions the FAO has flagged — the Sahel, Southern Africa, South America, Central America — and secondary teleconnection zones affecting U.S. wheat and Asian rice production are the geographies to monitor. The 97% persistence probability through early spring 2027 effectively extends that risk horizon well past the event's climatological peak, meaning post-peak food price effects and supply chain disruption could materialize even as Pacific temperatures begin to cool.
