Pentagon's Colby declares Aukus 'full steam ahead' — but the numbers tell a harder story
Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of war and third-highest-ranking official at the Pentagon, has declared the Aukus pact "full steam ahead," echoing language first used by President Donald Trump at his October 2025 meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Colby, who authored the Trump administration's review of the Aukus deal, made the remark at an Asia-Pacific press briefing on Thursday. He told the briefing the Pentagon was "very pleased with the progress that has been made since the conclusion of the Aukus review," which he said "has provided a roadmap for the success of the Aukus program." He described Australia as a partner with which the US had "no better ally" and cited a "deep alignment of thinking" between the two countries (The Guardian).
The endorsement is notable because Colby was, until recently, an avowed Aukus sceptic. The original draft of his review was understood to be sceptical about the agreement's prospects of success. It was rewritten, on some accounts twice, to more closely align with the president's position that Aukus was "full steam ahead" (ABC News).
The trajectory from sceptic to cheerleader is the part that matters for anyone watching the substance. The review Colby authored covers the architecture of pillar one: Australia buying between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US, the first slated for delivery in 2032, before developing domestically built Aukus-class submarines. The UK, meanwhile, is set to launch the first purpose-built Aukus submarine for the Royal Navy by the late 2030s.
The arithmetic is where the cheerfulness gets tested. US boat-builders are currently manufacturing Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 1.1 to 1.2 vessels per year. The US Navy needs that rate lifted to two boats a year just to meet its own force-level requirements. To sell any submarines to Australia, the production line has to reach 2.33 boats a year. The US submarine fleet currently stands at 49 boats against a force-level goal of 66, meaning it is operating at roughly three-quarters of its stated requirement.
There is also a statutory gate. Before any boat can be transferred to Australia, the US commander-in-chief must certify that relinquishing a submarine will not diminish the US Navy's undersea capability. With the fleet already 17 boats short of its target, that certification is not a rubber stamp.
Colby's framing at the briefing was that the review had settled the question. He said the Pentagon was pleased with the progress and that a roadmap was now in place. That roadmap, though, depends on industrial capacity that has not yet materialised and on a presidential certification that must bridge the gap between selling boats to an ally and a fleet that is already short.
The gap between the rhetoric and the production numbers is not new to anyone who has followed the Aukus file closely. What is new is hearing it from Colby, the man whose own review reportedly started from a position of doubt before being brought into line with the president's preferred message. The review was rewritten to align with "full steam ahead," and now its author is delivering exactly that line publicly. Whether the shipyard numbers follow is a separate question — one that will not be answered at a press briefing.
