National's poll pain deepens as Labour fails to capitalise and Opportunity holds the balance
National has dropped to 29.1 percent support in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, its lowest reading in the series, while Labour has failed to pick up the lost vote and the Opportunity party has crossed the five percent threshold to claim the balance of power. The August 2026 poll, published on 23 August, confirms a trend visible since March: the combined major party vote keeps shrinking, and neither bloc can form a government on current numbers. RNZ
National's 29.1 percent is down from 30.8 percent in March and 32.9 percent in a July poll, a steady erosion across three successive surveys. Labour led the field but the poll's framing, "National's pain is no gain for Labour," captures the core dynamic: voters leaving National are not migrating to the main opposition party in proportionate numbers. The combined major party vote now sits at 62.7 percent, down from 66.4 percent in March and 66.9 percent in January. That fragmentation has opened space for the Opportunity party, which the poll gives six seats after it crossed the five percent threshold. With those six seats, Opportunity holds the balance of power: neither the three governing parties nor a Labour-led alternative can reach 61 without them. RNZ
The governing parties were mostly unchanged from the July poll and unable to form a government. On the opposition side, the poll found little appetite for a Labour leadership change: 43 percent of respondents said a new leader would not help Labour's chances, while 29.7 percent said it would and 27.4 percent said something else. Those figures date from a July RNZ-Reid Research survey, but the broader picture has not shifted. RNZ
Christopher Luxon's personal standing has deteriorated alongside his party's. His net favourability sits at -22.9 percent, and he trails Chris Hipkins on preferred prime minister, 19.9 percent to 21.3 percent. The gap is narrow but it is the first time in the RNZ-Reid Research series that Luxon has rated behind Hipkins on that measure. RNZ
The country mood has soured as well. A net -20.9 percent of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction, worse than -11.8 percent in the July poll. That near-doubling of negative sentiment in a single month points to something beyond ordinary mid-term drift, though the poll cannot isolate a cause. RNZ
The sharpest political flashpoint is Luxon's decision to rule out working with the Opportunity party. That call, reported by RNZ, began discontent within the National caucus, according to the same source. The logic is straightforward: if the three governing parties cannot reach a majority on their own, and the Opportunity party holds six seats, then ruling them out narrows the coalition math to a degree that the caucus is unlikely to tolerate quietly. Whether that discontent hardens into open revolt will depend on whether National's numbers recover before the election or continue south. RNZ
Reid Research's own results page shows Te Pāti Māori at 5.6 percent, TOP at 1.8 percent, and New Conservatives at 1.1 percent, though those figures are undated and should be treated as indicative rather than tied to the August wave. Reid Research
Looking at what this means for the parliamentary arithmetic: the August poll is the clearest signal yet that the 2026 election will hinge on a minor party holding leverage disproportionate to its vote share. Opportunity at six seats, with National unable to form a government and Labour unable to absorb National's losses, places that party at the centre of every plausible coalition configuration. Luxon's categorical refusal to deal with them is therefore not just a messaging decision; it is a structural constraint on his own coalition options. If the caucus reads the polls the way the polls read, the pressure on that position will mount.
The trajectory matters as much as the snapshot. National has moved from 32.9 percent in July to 30.8 percent in March to 29.1 percent now, a consistent decline across successive polls. Labour has not gained from it. The right-direction/wrong-direction net has nearly doubled in a month. And the leader of the opposition now outranks the prime minister on preferred PM, however narrowly. Each of those indicators, taken individually, is manageable. Taken together, they describe a government losing altitude without a clear beneficiary.
