EHCP Demand Surge in England: Families Race Ahead of SEND Reforms as Projections Point to One in Ten Children by 2029
Schools and councils across England expect the proportion of children with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) to double to one in 10, as families rush to secure support before the government's planned reforms take effect, The Guardian reported on 6 September 2026. Headteachers described an "unreal" surge in applications for EHCPs, with one using that exact word to characterise the volume of requests now arriving.
EHCPs are legal documents agreed between local authorities and families in England detailing the support required for children and young people up to the age of 25, allowing access to extra funding or places in special schools. More than 530,000 school-age children in England currently have EHCPs, while an additional 1.3 million have identified special needs, according to official data cited by The Guardian. In 2025, one in 20 school-age children in England had an EHCP.
The latest official statistics, published on 30 June 2026, show there were 718,800 children and young people with an active EHC plan in England in January 2026, up from 638,700 in January 2025, an increase of 12.5% (DfE statistics; BBC News). A County Councils Network report put the number of EHCPs issued in England at a record 638,000 in 2024-25 (The Guardian, November 2025). The number of pupils with EHCPs in England rose by more than 11% in each of the last two years, and the trajectory is steepening: the number of school pupils with EHCPs rose by 180,000 (71%) between 2018 and 2024, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Local authority projections seen by The Guardian anticipate similar double-digit annual increases in EHCP numbers over the next three years. Similar increases nationally would mean just under 10% of all school-age children in England would have an EHCP in 2029.
Bill Revans, the County Councils Network's spokesperson on special educational needs and disabilities and Liberal Democrat leader of Somerset council, said there had been a sharp surge in assessment requests since the government announced planned reforms in February. The CCN's previous analysis predicted the number of EHCPs would rise to 840,000 by 2028-29, a figure its spokesperson said was now likely to be exceeded. The Association of Directors of Children's Services (ADCS) also commented on the surge, expressing growing concern across the system that statutory EHCPs could be removed or significantly changed (ADCS, October 2025). Children & Young People Now reported in June 2026 that local authorities are describing a "very significant surge" in demand for EHCP assessment requests since the government unveiled its plans.
The government's SEND white paper aims to give children earlier diagnosis and intervention and moderate the need for EHCPs. Under the proposals, EHCPs would be designed for those with more profound needs and disabilities from 2030. The full package of SEND reforms will be phased in over a decade (The Guardian, February 2026). Georgia Gould, the schools minister overseeing the changes, said the government was carefully considering the responses to its white paper on SEND.
The pressure on the system is visible in delivery metrics and funding alike. In 2023, only half of EHC plans in England were issued within the statutory 20-week limit (Public Accounts Committee, January 2025). The IFS reported that rapid rises in the number of pupils with special educational needs have led to a significant fall in both funding and spending per EHCP. ASCL noted that funding for high needs in England rose by 50% between 2015 and 2025, while the number of EHCPs rose by 80% up to 2024, with demand continuing to grow (ASCL).
A Guardian survey published in March 2026 found that only 38% of parents of SEND pupils without EHCPs felt teachers in mainstream schools had the tools to deal with special needs (The Guardian, March 2026). The pipeline of demand is also feeding into broader tensions: a legal action against the government argued that VAT on private school fees is discriminatory and breaches the rights of children with special educational needs whose requirements cannot be met by UK state schools (The Guardian, April 2025).
The broader context here is a system caught between reform and reality. The government's intent to narrow EHCP eligibility from 2030 has paradoxically accelerated the very demand it seeks to moderate, as families move to lock in legally enforceable entitlements before any tightening takes effect. Councils, already failing statutory timelines on half of all plans, now face projected growth that their own modelling suggests will exceed prior worst-case estimates. The funding arithmetic compounds the strain: even a 50% increase in high-needs funding over a decade has been outpaced by 80% growth in EHCP numbers. If the doubling to one in ten children materialises by 2029, the per-plan spending squeeze identified by the IFS will intensify rather than ease, and the transition to the new framework in 2030 will begin from a baseline of demand substantially higher than the reforms were designed to absorb.