Treasuries Hold Near 5% as Bunds Hit 15-Year High in Global Selloff
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered at 4.970% on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, edging lower on the session while holding close to recent multiyear highs. Germany's 10-year Bund yield hit a new 15-year high the same day. Wall Street Journal
The move capped a steady climb toward 5%. Bloomberg reported on Sept. 11 that benchmark Treasury yields were pushed toward the closely watched 5% level ahead of U.S. inflation data, and reported on Sept. 13 that the selloff had driven a key Treasury yield to the verge of 5%. Bloomberg
That pricing marked a shift from early September. On Sept. 2, CNBC reported the 10-year note yield down more than 1 basis point at 4.78%, after reaching 4.818%. On Sept. 8, CNBC reported the 10-year had briefly climbed back above 4.8%. CNBC
Intraday quotes on Sept. 14 showed how tight the range around 5% had become. A lower-priority undated CNBC quote page listed the 10-year at 4.955% at 1:16 PM EDT, with an open of 4.955% and a previous close of 4.975%. The dated Sept. 14 reports remain authoritative for the session level at 4.970%.
The German leg matched the U.S. move for intensity. CNBC reported on Sept. 11 that the yield on German 10-year bonds crossed 3.5% on Friday, Sept. 11, for the first time since April 2011. Undated quote and data pages put the subsequent Monday print around 3.52%, up 0.01 percentage points on the session, with an open at 3.5075%, a day high of 3.5544%, a day low of 3.506% and a previous close of 3.5316%. CNBC
The backdrop for the repricing was set out in an Aug. 4 U.S. Treasury release published Aug. 5. It put ten-year Treasury yields at roughly 4.6% at that time and two-year yields at around 4.2%, with the Fed funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%. U.S. Treasury
That release cited June data bringing annual headline CPI to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6%, and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.2% in June from 4.3%. It noted Brent crude peaked near $126 in spring 2026 before easing to the low-$70s through June. It also noted the FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections revised the 2026 core PCE projection up to about 3.3% and revised 2026 real growth down to about 2.2%, with roughly half of participants penciling in at least one rate hike in 2026.
Long-end pressure had been building since July. On July 29, Bloomberg reported the U.S. 30-year yield soared to its highest since 2007. Bloomberg
The broader context here is a joint selloff in duration on both sides of the Atlantic, not a U.S.-only rate repricing. Bunds making a new 15-year high while Treasuries test 5% points to a correlated move in term premium and inflation compensation. For desks, that correlation reduces the diversification benefit of holding Bund duration against Treasury duration. It also tightens financial conditions through the same channels in both economies, through mortgage rates, corporate discount rates and sovereign debt servicing.
Looking at what this means for positioning, the levels matter more than the daily direction. An edge lower to 4.97% does not change the stock effect of yields near 5% and Bunds above 3.5%. Carry remains high. Convexity risk rises. Liquidity in off-the-run ten-years and in Bund futures tends to thin when round-number thresholds dominate flow. In my view, the open question into the inflation prints flagged in the Sept. 11 reports is whether the market is pricing persistence in core inflation or additional compensation for fiscal and supply uncertainty. The Treasury's August summary leans toward the first explanation. Price action across Treasuries and Bunds will test the second.
