Fed Hike Calls: Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley Eye Sept
Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a quarter-point hike at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Reuters The calls were reported on September 14, one day before the meeting opened. That timing matters.
Morgan Stanley is aligned. Matt Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, said on September 14 that he expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday. Bloomberg Wednesday is the second day of the scheduled meeting. Consensus is now hawkish.
Goldman Sachs framed the equity angle two days earlier. On September 12 it published an insights piece titled 'What a Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for US Stocks' featuring Jonathan Shugar, head of Cross Asset Sales. Shugar said a Federal Reserve rate hike may not keep the US stock market from climbing. The message is narrow. Hike does not equal derailment.
Bond pricing had been moving that way over the summer. Goldman Sachs briefing document 'The Outlook for the Fed' stated the bond market was pricing a 55% chance of a Fed hike in September as of July 29. That left the September decision live but uncommitted at the time.
The September hike calls invert Goldman's prior Research path. Goldman Sachs Research expects the Fed to cut rates in June and December 2027, revised from December 2026 and March 2027 previously. Goldman Sachs That view was published on June 9, 2026. An earlier outlook, published on December 3, 2025, had forecast two more Fed cuts next year, leaving interest rates at 3-3.25%. Treat that sequence as archive. The operative forecast for this week is a hike.
Morgan Stanley's history shows the same turn. Its 'Thoughts on the Market' series included a 'Fed Rate Cut September 2025' installment with Matthew Hornbach and Michael Gapen. That discussion stated markets were pricing a 90 percent chance of a Fed cut in September. It featured Matthew Hornbach analyzing how the Fed might address a policy paradox involving a 25 basis point rate cut. Its October FOMC meeting recap states the Fed cut by 25 basis points in October in a non-unanimous decision. Cuts were then consensus. Hikes are now.
The broader context here is a repricing of the reaction function, not a single meeting call. When desks shift from penciling cuts in 2027 to forecasting a hike at the imminent meeting, the curve, terminal and cross-asset hedges all have to be rethought together. For rates, the question becomes persistence. A one-off adjustment hike carries different duration and convexity implications than the start of a hiking sequence. For equities, Shugar's point isolates earnings and multiples from policy beta.
Looking at what this means for positioning, dissent risk looks central. The October cut cited by Morgan Stanley was non-unanimous, a reminder that dispersion on the Committee can widen realized volatility around the statement, dot and press conference. Options expiry, funding and front-end liquidity tend to feel that dispersion first. Credit and cross-asset sales desks, Shugar's domain, tend to focus next on whether higher front-end yields tighten financial conditions enough to reprice risk premia or whether equities look through as a late-cycle earnings story. In my view, the trade is less about Wednesday alone than about how the Chair frames the hurdle for a second move.
