Luxon keeps Māori seats question open for MMP referendum
National leader Christopher Luxon has refused to rule out putting abolition of the Māori seats to voters in his proposed referendum on MMP. He told RNZ constitutional policy would be released closer to the election as part of justice policy. RNZ The scope remains open.
Luxon first raised the MMP referendum on Newstalk ZB. He was asked whether he would hold one if he were prime minister next year. The Prime Minister's office ignored multiple requests from RNZ over the past month seeking clarity on referendum timing and a possible Māori seats question.
The question of the seats has been tested before. The ACT Party proposed a question on the Māori seats for the 2011 MMP referendum at select committee. It was blocked by National's confidence and supply agreement with the then-Māori Party.
New Zealand First is campaigning on a referendum on the Māori seats. RNZ Leader Winston Peters referenced the 1986 Royal Commission into the electoral system in discussion of that policy.
For now, no agency will put a number on Luxon's proposal. The Electoral Commission said it cannot provide a ballpark cost for an MMP referendum because it depends on costs at the time. The Commission said costs would depend on whether it was held alongside a general election, as a standalone poll, or by postal vote.
The Ministry of Justice said it was not able to supply a ballpark figure for the cost of running various referenda. That leaves the policy without an official costing. It also leaves delivery model as the central cost variable.
The nearest comparator is the four-year-term referendum the coalition abandoned before the election. About $25 million had been set aside by the Ministry of Justice for that vote. That comprised $18.7 million to run the referendum and $6.2 million for an information campaign.
A Cabinet paper estimated the cost of the abandoned four-year-term referendum at about $27 million. That estimate included $9.21 million for a public information campaign. The difference between the set-aside and the Cabinet paper figure reflects costing stages, not a settled budget for any future MMP vote.
Recent delivery costs point to the gap between piggybacked and standalone votes. New Zealand's last referendums held during a general election were in 2020 on the End of Life Choice Act and cannabis legalisation, at a combined cost of $12.9 million, about $5.5 million under budget. Running the 2020 election itself cost $99.9 million. New Zealand's last referendums held outside a general election were the flag referendums in 2015 and 2016, which the Electoral Commission delivered for under $13.6 million against a budget of more than $15.6 million.
The broader context here is process and coalition management. For Beehive staff, the justice policy release will set wording, timing and legislative vehicle. For Press Gallery watchers, the precedents to track are select committee handling of referendum legislation, confidence and supply constraints around the Māori seats, and competing coalition partner commitments on electoral and constitutional change. Cost will follow those decisions, particularly whether any vote runs with the general election or stands alone.
