Saudi Oman Cargoes Ease Oil; EU Gas Storage at 68.5%
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026, after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman, and eased in Asian trade on Thursday, Sept. 17, extending those losses. The move followed a rise in U.S. crude inventories, reported alongside the Saudi supply headlines. Reuters
Losses on Sept. 16-17 reversed part of the prior gain. On Monday, Sept. 14, oil had settled about 1% higher as worries about energy supplies mounted following new strikes. Reuters
The supply risk centers on Saudi Arabia. A pipeline outage threatened the loss of 4% of global oil supply, with Saudi stocks in ports for 5-7 days to maintain exports. Reuters Saudi Arabia's crude supply had already fallen by 2.3 million barrels per day on the month to 6 million bpd in August. Reuters
European gas is trading with a different balance. On Sept. 16, 2026 at 6AM CEST, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported EU gas storage at 775.00 TWh stored and 68.49% full. Austria held 67.31 TWh stored and was 67.12% full. Belgium held 4.52 TWh stored and was 59.39% full.
That level reflects a rebuild from a thin spring. Reuters reported in May 2026 that European inventories were at about 38.2% of capacity, against a typical seasonal level of roughly 52%. Reuters By July, the Wall Street Journal reported sites across the European Union were about 52% full, with injection rates running below last year's pace. In January, accelerated withdrawals had left inventories less than 52% full.
The current stock position remains well below the buffer seen before the last two winters. The Wall Street Journal cited Gas Infrastructure Europe data showing European inventories at 93.31% full in early December 2023, with Spain at 98.61% full and Germany at 93.99% full.
Spot and front prices have responded. Reuters reported on May 21, 2026 that prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub were hovering around 50 euros per megawatt hour, after having risen to 74 euros per megawatt hour in March. On Sept. 3, the Wall Street Journal reported European natural-gas prices climbed more than 2% to just shy of 74 euros a megawatt-hour amid severely disrupted supply flows from Qatar. WSJ
The forward curve sits above official assumptions. CME Group quoted October 2026 Dutch TTF Calendar Month Futures at 79.520, November at 79.305, December at 79.131 and January 2027 at 78.964. Further out, ICE listed the Dutch TTF Summer 27 contract at 56.060 as of Sept. 14, 2026, and the Q3 27 contract at 52.295 as of Sept. 11, 2026. The ECB's projections foresaw December gas futures at 60.1 euros per megawatt hour under the baseline scenario, and at 77 euros under the adverse scenario. Reuters
Looking at what this means for risk pricing, the two fuels are diverging. Crude drew immediate relief from floating and rerouted barrels via Oman. Gas did not. December TTF near 79 euros is priced above the ECB adverse case of 77 euros.
In my view, the storage arithmetic explains much of that spread. A move from 38.2% in May to 68.49% in mid-September is material injection. It still leaves Europe entering autumn without the near-full cushion of December 2023. The winter-to-summer shape, with near 79 euros for winter 2026-27 against low-50s for summer and Q3 2027, prices a winter premium for deliverability rather than average annual balance. For inflation analysis, that matters. Gas at current forwards sustains upside risk even as crude spot softens on Saudi replacement cargoes.
