Hurricane Nolo Closes on Hawaii, Threatening Catastrophic Flooding

Hurricane Nolo was located just over 200 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island on Friday morning, September 25, 2026, continuing north-northeastward toward the islands.

The system was expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday as a major hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach Hawaii by Friday evening, with Nolo forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane on Saturday before turning west on Saturday without directly hitting the Hawaiian islands.

That offshore track will not spare Hawaii from severe impacts. Forecasters warned of potentially life-threatening and catastrophic flooding across the state, with the heaviest rainfall focused on the Big Island. Forecasts published September 25 put storm totals at 15 to 30 inches (38 to 76 cm) through Saturday, with higher totals possible and localized maxima of 25 to 35 inches, according to Al Jazeera and The Guardian. A separate forecast cited totals up to 35 inches across parts of the Big Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Nolo's rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. The National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii stated moisture on the north side of Nolo would interact with the terrain of the Big Island and Maui and could lead to significant flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service. Orographic lift and channelized runoff make such terrain particularly efficient at converting tropical moisture into flash floods and debris flows.

Surf and coastal flooding add a second hazard. Forecasters expect large and damaging waves along Hawaii's coast. A hurricane watch was in effect for Hawaii County due to Nolo. A National Weather Service Hurricane Watch statement for Nolo warned of potential storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground with localized inundation.

Preparations accelerated ahead of the Friday evening onset. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green requested an emergency disaster declaration for four Hawaii counties to access federal funds and emergency support ahead of the storm. More than 230 Hawaii National Guard members were activated. Schools closed.

The forecast heaviest rain overlaps with an area previously hit by Hurricane Lala in August where some people remain displaced. Saturated soils, damaged drainage and temporary shelter increase exposure even before new rainfall totals are considered.

September 25 also brought a two-basin threat. On September 25, 2026, Hurricane Polo was lashing Mexico's coast while Hurricane Nolo strengthened near Hawaii.

The broader context here is that proximity matters less than moisture transport and topography in the central Pacific. A major hurricane passing south of the Big Island can still direct a prolonged fetch of deep tropical moisture into windward slopes, and Nolo's north-northeast motion followed by a westward turn prolongs that interaction. For emergency managers, the operational problem is therefore not a landfall point but duration of rainfall, integrity of slopes and waterways already stressed by Lala, and the narrow window before tropical storm conditions arrive Friday evening.