Bianco Turns Bullish on Treasuries for First Time Since 2020
Jim Bianco turned bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds on September 28, 2026. It was his first bullish stance since 2020, according to Bloomberg. He cited rising yields making entry more attractive as the reason for the change.
The call is a level-driven reversal. The stated logic is narrow. Yields rose enough to compensate for duration risk. The focus is entry timing, not a revised macro thesis.
The broader context here is how rates investors distinguish price from value. A bearish duration view can persist through a selloff and then flip without any macro call changing. Starting yield resets expected return. It widens the cushion against further price declines. It improves carry and roll-down. For outright longs, that math often matters more than the next data print.
In my view, the duration of the prior stance is what gives this signal weight on trading desks. Valuation-based flips tend to be legible to systematic and discretionary managers alike. They translate directly into breakeven analysis. They do not require agreement on growth, inflation or policy path. That makes them easier to underwrite as a risk position, even for investors who remain structurally cautious on duration supply.
Looking at what this means for positioning, the question is tenor and instrument. Bullish on Treasuries can mean outright duration, curve exposure, or relative value against other sovereigns and credit. Each carries different beta, convexity and funding implications. A yield-led entry argument leans toward outright duration rather than a curve shape view. It prioritizes yield compensation per unit of volatility. Desks will parse whether that preference sits in intermediates, where carry per duration is often cleanest, or extends to the long end, where convexity compensates but supply and liquidity dynamics dominate.
In my view, the risk in reading this as a turning point is conflating entry level with trend. Higher yield improves forward return arithmetic. It does not cap yields. Momentum, positioning squeezes and real-money flows can still push prices through valuation levels. Reversals after extended bearish stances get attention because they suggest capitulation of a crowded bearish thesis. They work best when paired with a catalyst that forces repricing of terminal rates or term premium. Without that, they function as a tactical duration add, not a regime call.
Looking at what this means for risk management, the discipline is sizing. Duration scales losses as efficiently as gains. Volatility in rates means breakevens can be tested quickly. That is why level-based bullish shifts are often staged rather than full size at first touch. Patience matters. Carry accrues over time.
