NGX26 Holds Near 3.09 as December Premium Defines Winter Strip
November 2026 Henry Hub futures (NGX26) were quoted at 3.087, up 0.014 (+0.46%), while December 2026 (NGZ26) traded at 3.734, up 0.021 (+0.57%). CME Group uses Globex code NGX26 for the November 2026 Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract, with NGZ26 the corresponding December code. The two outrights imply a November-December spread of 0.647 CME Futures Quotes.
The settlement snapshot tells a different story on level. CME Group's Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements page lists a NOV 26 row with values 3.01600, 3.02100, 2.94700 and 2.95000. It lists a DEC 26 row with values 3.34500, 3.35400, 3.28300 and 3.28500 CME Settlements. The prints differ by venue and timestamp. Settlement methodology and quote timing explain much of that gap.
Two other CME reference points add to the dispersion. The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Calendar page lists NGX26 with Last 2.995, Change -0.031 (-1.02%) and Volume 1,430, last updated 30 Sep 2026. The Natural Gas Option (American) Quotes page lists NGX26 with Last 3.039, Change +0.072 (+2.43%) and Volume 178,518 CME Calendar. Futures last, calendar last and options last are not equivalent inputs. Volume profiles are also distinct.
On the weather input side, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues 6-10 Day outlooks daily between 3pm and 4pm Eastern Time. Its 8 to 14 Day Outlook valid October 12 to 18, 2026 was updated on Oct 4, 2026. The 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussion states above normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska NOAA Discussion. The Week 3-4 Outlook states trends lean toward above normal temperatures over the CONUS, with above-normal temperature probabilities enhanced over much of Alaska.
On storage, the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its October 6, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast U.S. working natural gas inventories will total 3,969 billion cubic feet EIA STEO. The CURRENT DATE for this pricing and outlook stack is Oct. 5, 2026 GMT, placing the NOAA 8-14 day window and the EIA outlook forward of the last calendar timestamp.
The broader context here is curve shape versus quote level. For a desk, the 0.647 November to December differential in the quotes feed matters more than any single outright. Early-winter contango of that magnitude prices carry and delivery optionality between shoulder-month expiry and peak heating-month expiry. Settlements at lower absolute levels still preserve a December premium, which keeps the term-structure signal intact even as outrights move with intraday flow.
In my view, the more useful tension is between storage expectations and temperature skew. A 3,969 Bcf working inventory figure defines cushion into withdrawal season. Above-normal temperature leans across the CONUS and Alaska in the extended outlooks, if sustained, would moderate withdrawal pace. Options volume near 178,500 contracts against calendar volume of 1,430 underlines where hedging and volatility expression are concentrated. Watch settlement convergence and any revision to the storage trajectory for confirmation.
