Wall Street Posts $45.9 Billion First Half, Puts $90 Billion Year in View
Wall Street's securities industry earned $45.9 billion in pre-tax profits in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from $30.4 billion in first-half 2025, with the New York State Comptroller forecasting a full-year total above $90 billion. The estimate, published Oct. 6, puts 2026 on pace to clear the prior annual record by a wide margin. Office of the State Comptroller
That prior annual record was $65.1 billion, according to Bloomberg. A $90 billion-plus year would exceed it by nearly 40%. The Comptroller also reported securities employment at a record high in 2026. Profits expanded while headcount expanded.
The bonus outlook moved with profits. The Comptroller expects 2026 bonuses to reach an all-time high. That call aligns with Bloomberg's Oct. 6 reporting that Wall Street is eyeing record payouts as profit heads past $90 billion.
The base for any payout is already elevated. The securities industry bonus pool rose 34% to a record $47.5 billion in 2024, according to the Comptroller's 2025 report on the industry. Office of the State Comptroller For fiscal purposes, the leverage is direct. The 2024 bonus season was expected to generate $600 million more in New York State income tax revenue and $275 million more for New York City than in 2023, according to Reuters.
The run-up to 2026 was visible in consultant forecasts. On Nov. 5, 2025, Reuters reported bonuses were expected to be the highest in four years, citing a consultancy forecast. Reuters Within that forecast, equity sales and trading professionals were expected to receive the largest increases, at 15% to 25%. That dispersion matters. It pointed to secondary-market activity, not advisory, as the marginal driver of compensation accruals heading into this year.
Deal and trading revenue confirmed that mix early. In January 2026, Goldman Sachs reported a profit beat driven by record stock trading revenue and forecast robust M&A activity in 2026, according to Reuters. Strong principal and flow volumes flatter pre-tax margins quickly because compensation is accrued as a share of net revenue while fixed costs stay sticky.
Looking at what this means for sell-side economics, the combination of record employment alongside a 51.3% profit jump is unusual. It implies revenue per head rose sharply enough to absorb hiring and still leave a record bonus pool in view. For Albany and City Hall, the structure cuts both ways. Finance-linked income tax receipts scale up fast in a $45.9 billion half, but concentration in trading and deal fees leaves the fiscal base exposed to volume mean-reversion. In my view, the question for the second half is not whether accruals support record payouts, they do on current numbers, but how much of the first-half revenue run rate was pull-forward of client activity rather than a durable expansion of risk appetite.
