US Natural Gas Gives Back Gains Into Storage Print

U.S. Nymex natural gas futures fell 3.1% to $3.182/mmBtu ahead of the weekly storage data, the Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 14 in 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall Ahead of Weekly Storage Data' Wall Street Journal. The move reversed prior gains into the EIA print. A brief cold front was expected in the Northeast at the weekend.

EIA estimated working gas in storage at 3,500 Bcf as of Friday, Oct. 2, with a net increase of 85 Bcf from the previous week for the week ending Oct. 2 EIA. That injection sets the near-term baseline traders were positioned around on Oct. 14. October injections carry outsized weight for end-season balances.

The January reference data show how quickly the balance can swing. EIA's Natural Gas Weekly Update for the week ending Wednesday, Jan. 21 reported net withdrawals from storage of 120 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 16, versus a five-year average of 191 Bcf and 228 Bcf last year EIA. Working stocks totaled 3,065 Bcf for that week, 177 Bcf (6%) above the five-year average and 141 Bcf (5%) above last year. Storage was ample. Withdrawals were light.

LNG offtake provided the structural pull that week. EIA reported 37 LNG vessels with combined capacity of 139 Bcf departed U.S. ports between Jan. 15 and Jan. 21, citing Bloomberg Finance shipping data. Nine tankers departed from Sabine Pass, eight from Plaquemines and six from Corpus Christi in that window. EIA, citing Baker Hughes, reported the natural gas rig count decreased by 2 rigs to 122 rigs for the week ending Jan. 13.

Supply growth frames the forward curve. The EIA projected U.S. dry natural gas production will rise from a record 107.6 Bcf/d in 2025 to 111.7 Bcf/d in 2026 Reuters. That is a 4.1 Bcf/d year-on-year increase on an already elevated base. For storage traders, production of that scale caps the upside from transient heating demand.

The price deck reflects that supply view. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, down 32 cents/MMBtu (9%) from 2026 Natural Gas Intel. The cut came even as the storage outlook tightened. The spread between 2026 and 2027 pricing matters for carry, hedging and producer economics.

Petroleum provided a firmer cross-commodity read. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 2, according to the EIA Reuters. The EIA forecast 2026 Brent crude to average about $98 per barrel, up 8% from the prior month's forecast, and forecast Brent to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter Reuters.

Earlier WSJ storage coverage forms useful background rather than signal. A Nov. 27, 2024 item titled 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Give Back Gains' reported U.S. natural gas inventories decreased by 2 billion cubic feet to 3,967 Bcf and cited a price of $3.258/mmBtu amid warmer near-term temperatures. A March 5, 2026 item titled 'U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settle Higher' reported U.S. natural gas futures gained after a slightly bigger-than-expected 132 Bcf weekly inventory draw.

The broader context here is a market discounting prompt weather against a well-supplied physical position. An 85 Bcf early-October injection alongside 3,500 Bcf in the ground leaves little room for a bullish storage surprise to propagate, even with a weekend cold snap in a premium demand region. Prompt can still spike on short-covering around the number. Sustained strength needs either a sequence of below-normal withdrawals or a supply interruption.

Looking at what this means for positioning, the tension is between rising dry gas output and steady LNG feedgas demand. Production near 111.7 Bcf/d replenishes storage quickly when heating load fades. LNG departures in the 139 Bcf per week range tighten the Gulf Coast balance and support basis. The Henry Hub 2027 average at $3.16 points to expectations that supply growth clears. In my view, desks will focus less on the single-week headline and more on the surplus to the five-year average, the rig response at 122 rigs, and whether Q4 Brent strength near $105 spills into thermal parity thinking.