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Willis: NZ Must Balance China Pushback With Trade Ties After Missile Test

Hana SinclairPublished 4w ago5 min readBased on 4 sources
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Willis: NZ Must Balance China Pushback With Trade Ties After Missile Test

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says the government must balance standing up to China over its South Pacific missile test with the reality that China remains New Zealand's largest trading partner.

Speaking on RNZ's Morning Report, Willis said Pacific countries needed to present a united front over the test. "We as Pacific countries, need to stand together and say uh-uh, not in our backyard, not okay," she said. But she was equally clear that the response could not be one-dimensional. "We have to walk a careful path of our own, where we do speak up for our values, speak up for our interests, but also recognise that those interests are multiple. We do have economic interests, we do have trade interests, we do have interests in a nuclear-free Pacific," Willis said RNZ.

China test-launched a long-range ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead into the South Pacific on Monday. Beijing has described the launch as a routine arrangement consistent with international law RNZ. That characterisation has not been accepted by Wellington's political leadership. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called the test unacceptable, unwelcome and concerning, and said the government had conveyed that position directly to Chinese officials RNZ. Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour used similarly blunt language a day earlier, describing the test as "extremely unwelcome behaviour" RNZ.

Willis linked the incident to the case for deeper defence integration with Australia, saying the missile activity underlined the need for interoperable forces across the Pacific. Luxon went further, saying New Zealand and Australia's militaries would become more aligned over time and that work on that front was already under way RNZ. Neither leader detailed a timeline or specific capability commitments tied to that alignment, and the comments read more as a signal of intent than an announcement of new spending or force structure.

Notably, the government's framing has not produced the partisan split that might be expected on a China-related security question. Labour's deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni said there was cross-party consensus on the government's handling of the test. "Our priority is the protection of our Pacific region, and I think that we're on the same page," Sepuloni said. That alignment across the aisle is arguably the more interesting data point here: on most matters of economic and social policy this government and Labour disagree sharply, but on this specific test, the opposition has chosen not to contest the coalition's posture.

The tension Willis is describing is not new to New Zealand foreign policy, but it is unusually exposed here. China is New Zealand's single largest trading partner, a status that shapes export returns across dairy, forestry, and horticulture and one that governments of both stripes have been reluctant to jeopardise. At the same time, successive governments have maintained a rhetorical commitment to a nuclear-free Pacific dating to the 1980s, and have increasingly framed China's naval and missile activity in the region as a strategic concern shared with Australia and other Pacific partners. Willis's comments make explicit what officials in Wellington have generally preferred to leave implicit: that the trade relationship and the security relationship pull in different directions, and that neither can be allowed to fully dictate the other.

What is less clear from the government's public statements so far is what concrete diplomatic or economic consequences, if any, will follow the test. Luxon's language — unacceptable, unwelcome, concerning — is strong by the standards of New Zealand's usually understated diplomatic register, but it stops short of signalling any specific retaliatory step, whether through trade measures, diplomatic downgrades, or coordinated Pacific Islands Forum action. Willis's own remarks stayed at the level of principle rather than policy detail. Whether "standing together" as Pacific countries translates into a joint statement, a Forum-level response, or simply aligned rhetoric from individual capitals remains to be worked out, likely in consultation with Canberra and Pacific Island governments in the coming weeks.

The Australia alignment comments deserve scrutiny in their own right. Luxon's suggestion that the two countries' militaries will become "more aligned" builds on a long-running conversation about closer trans-Tasman defence cooperation, including previous discussion of New Zealand's potential association with elements of the AUKUS framework's non-nuclear pillar. Neither Luxon nor Willis referenced AUKUS directly in these remarks, and it would be a stretch to read the missile test as the trigger for a formal decision on that front. But the timing of the comments, arriving within days of the test, suggests the government sees the incident as useful ballast for an argument it was already inclined to make about interoperability with Australia.