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SpaceX's $2 Trillion IPO Arc: From Record Listing to Below-OPI Correction in Five Weeks

Marcus SterlingPublished 2d ago5 min readBased on 16 sources
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SpaceX's $2 Trillion IPO Arc: From Record Listing to Below-OPI Correction in Five Weeks

SpaceX stock broke below its $135 IPO price for the first time on July 15, 2026, capping a five-week arc that saw the company surge to a peak market capitalization above $2.6 trillion before shedding roughly 34% to land near $1.75 trillion (QZ).

The IPO itself priced at $135 per share, raising at least $75 billion in an all-primary offering with no secondary shares from existing holders. A greenshoe option was included. As of June 2, SpaceX was targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation inclusive of that option (Reuters). The offering size had been reported at $75 billion by Bloomberg in late May (Bloomberg).

The pricing was the end of a moving target. In January 2026, the Financial Times reported SpaceX was weighing a mid-June IPO at roughly $1.5 trillion, aiming to raise as much as $50 billion (Reuters). By April, Bloomberg reported the company was aiming above $2 trillion. By late May, after consultations, that target was lowered to at least $1.8 trillion (Bloomberg). SpaceX's private market valuation was about $1.25 trillion, according to a June Bloomberg opinion piece (Bloomberg). An April 8 Reuters analysis assumed cash flow and revenue would need to double in 2026 from reported 2025 levels to justify the $1.75 trillion valuation (Reuters). SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025 (Reuters).

On its first day of trading, SpaceX opened with a $1.8 trillion market cap and closed at $2.1 trillion, up 19% from the IPO price (MarketWatch). Crypto derivative tokens had been implying a valuation of roughly $2.2 trillion ahead of the listing (Bloomberg). By June 12, the market cap reached $2.274 trillion, surpassing TSMC and falling just short of Amazon's $2.55 trillion (MarketWatch). On June 16, shares rose 4.8% to close at $201.80, pushing the market value to roughly $2.655 trillion, surpassing Amazon by about $800 billion (Reuters). SpaceX gained $673.8 billion in market cap, a 37% increase, per a MarketWatch comparison to Intel's IPO history (MarketWatch). At that point, SpaceX reached $2.45 trillion before pushing higher to its peak above $2.6 trillion (MarketWatch; QZ).

The reversal was sharp. From the peak above $2.6 trillion, the stock declined roughly 34%, falling below the $135 IPO price for the first time on July 15 and bringing the market cap to approximately $1.75 trillion (QZ; MarketWatch). As of July 15, Meta Platforms sat in eighth place by market cap at roughly $1.72 trillion, according to Dow Jones Market Data, placing SpaceX's post-correction valuation just above that threshold (MarketWatch). For context, the world's most valuable stock was worth about $4.7 trillion as of July 7 (Bloomberg). Also in that July 7 report, a SpaceX bull projected the company's market valuation could reach roughly $10.5 trillion.

The broader context here is a valuation trajectory that outpaced even an aggressive pre-IPO schedule. The IPO price implied a $1.75 trillion enterprise; the first-day close added $350 billion in market cap in a single session. At the June 16 peak of $2.655 trillion, SpaceX had added over $900 billion in value above the IPO pricing in under two weeks of trading. The subsequent correction, wiping roughly $900 billion from that peak back to $1.75 trillion, brought the stock full circle to its IPO-day valuation, albeit now trading below the $135 offer price.

What stands out is the symmetry of the round trip. The all-primary structure meant the $75 billion raised went to the balance sheet, not to exiting shareholders, which is unusual for an offering of this magnitude. The greenshoe option would have allowed underwriters to stabilize the stock in the event of post-IPO weakness, but the shares broke below the offer price roughly five weeks after listing, suggesting any stabilization efforts had been exhausted or withdrawn. The $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue against a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation implies a price-to-sales ratio north of 93x at the offer price, and that multiple expanded further during the rally before compressing back on the decline. Whether that revenue doubles in 2026, as the Reuters analysis assumed was necessary to justify the IPO valuation, remains the fundamental question underneath the price action. The bull case at $10.5 trillion requires a further order-of-magnitude expansion in both the business and the multiple the market is willing to pay for it.

Micron Technology also crossed a trillion-dollar market cap during this period, per the same MarketWatch report that tracked SpaceX's post-IPO trajectory (MarketWatch).