Trump Signals Impending Hormuz Deal as Vance Urges Caution and Tanker Strike Underscores Fragility
President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz "could be soon," even as Vice-President JD Vance cautioned that significant work remains, telling Fox News: "We're really in the middle of the game here" and "This thing is not over" (BBC).
The remarks on 8 August come amid a fast-moving diplomatic track. Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and are awaiting final approval from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AP). Iran, Oman, and the United States were reported to be "close" to a deal that could restore shipping through the waterway and potentially open a pathway to broader peace talks between Tehran and Washington (Al Jazeera).
Vance outlined a multi-track US approach, saying Washington is "applying diplomatic, economic and military tools to get the best outcome for the American people" in the negotiations. He also said the US is working to establish a traffic scheme to allow ships to transit the Strait safely. He claimed that the same volume of oil will flow from the Gulf as before the US military operation that began on 28 February, though he offered no specifics on how that would be assured (BBC).
A central friction point is whether Iran intends to levy transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait. Reuters, citing an Iranian official, reported that Tehran was seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of cargo value from ships transiting the waterway. Vance downplayed those reports, saying: "The Iranians have told us they have no plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz" (BBC).
The contradiction between the Reuters report and Vance's characterization cuts to the core of the deal's fragility. A proposed arrangement would give Iran control of inbound traffic through the Strait, a structure sources described to Reuters as a major concession to Tehran (Reuters). The European Union has weighed in as well, with an EU official stating that the Strait must remain open under international law and calling on Iran to abandon any plan to levy transit fees. Iran dismissed that appeal as "peak hypocrisy" (IRNA).
The diplomatic track has moved through Muscat. Iran and Oman agreed on the coordinates of a new shipping route through the Strait, and both sides described the talks as positive. Oman characterized the navigation discussions in those terms, while Iran said its talks with Oman to reopen the critical shipping route were progressing "positively" (Al Jazeera; The Guardian). The two countries are finalizing a draft deal to jointly manage the waterway (The Guardian). Qatar has separately said mediators have made progress in efforts to end the US-Iran war (Reuters).
Iran's posture at the International Maritime Organization has been more combative. Iran's IMO delegation rejected an IMO draft regarding the Strait and defended Iran's legal position, asserting that maritime traffic through the waterway has not been halted and continues under "appropriate supervisory and coordination measures" (IRNA). That language tracks with earlier Iranian statements: in April, an Iranian official said Iran was developing a protocol for safe passage in the Strait (IRNA), and in May, the IRGC Navy said transits proceed under its coordination (IRNA).
The operational reality on the water remains volatile. The UAE said on 7 August that Iran had targeted a tanker affiliated with Adnoc, the UAE's state-owned oil company, as it transited the Strait. The UAE foreign ministry described it as a "hostile Iranian attack" involving a missile strike, though no casualties were reported (BBC). Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a ship struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman, causing a fire that was extinguished, also with no casualties. It remains unclear whether the UKMTO and UAE reports refer to the same vessel (BBC).
The broader context here is one of tension between diplomatic momentum and operational risk. The draft deal awaiting Khamenei's approval would represent the first concrete framework for reopening the Strait since the US military operation began in late February. Yet the structure under discussion, particularly the reported grant of inbound traffic control to Iran, raises questions about how voluntary compliance by commercial shippers and insurers would be maintained, especially when tanker strikes occur even as negotiations progress.
Vance's language, "the middle of the game," is a useful framing. The Iranians and Omanis have done the technical work on coordinates and a new shipping route. The political decision now sits with Tehran's leadership. Whether the Supreme Leader signs off, and whether the terms survive scrutiny from Gulf states whose vessels have been hit, will determine whether Trump's "could be soon" becomes "is done" or reverts to stalemate.
