A Major Analyst Firm Says Apple Stock Could Fall 16% — Here's Why
On August 10, 2026, the investment firm Jefferies lowered its rating on Apple (AAPL) from Hold to Underperform — which is Wall Street language for "we think this stock will do worse than the market." Jefferies also cut its price target for Apple to $263.66 from $285.56. A price target is an analyst's estimate of what a stock should be worth. Jefferies warned that the new target implies roughly 16% downside, meaning the firm believes the share price could fall about 16% from where it trades now. Analyst Edison Lee issued the call, which CNBC described as a sell rating. StreetInsider
The downgrade comes down to two concerns. First, Jefferies said Apple's plan to sell more expensive iPhones looks difficult. The analyst's checks with suppliers and retailers do not support the revenue growth that the current stock price seems to expect. Investing.com Second, Jefferies said investors have "excessive expectations" for the iPhone 18 Fold, a new folding phone that optimistic investors are counting on to justify Apple's high stock price. Yahoo Finance
Jefferies also found something in its supply-chain research that backed up the downgrade. The firm said its checks indicated Apple had canceled its planned all-glass iPhone model, and cited that cancellation as a reason for the sell rating. CNBC An all-glass phone would have been a big design change, potentially allowing Apple to charge higher prices and create new business for parts suppliers. Its cancellation removes one of the product upgrades that could have driven a wave of customers to buy new phones.
GuruFocus, reporting on the same date, noted that its own valuation metric placed AAPL at roughly 11% overvalued amid the supply-chain setback, providing a separate check that lined up with Jefferies' bearish view. GuruFocus
The supply-chain news affected another company. Corning (GLW) shares traded up 0.63% to $166.72 on Monday following the news that Apple had canceled the all-glass iPhone. Investing.com Corning is the dominant supplier of the tough glass used on smartphone screens. The market's positive reaction likely reflects relief that Corning will not be tying its glass business to an unproven phone design, even though the cancellation also means Corning loses out on potential new business.
The number to watch is $263.66. At roughly 16% below recent trading levels, it makes Jefferies more bearish than most analysts covering Apple. The gap between the target and the current price is wide enough that closing it would require either Apple's stock falling significantly or Jefferies raising its target if it gets better data from its supply-chain checks. The canceled all-glass model is the more concrete, checkable fact in this call. The "excessive expectations" judgment about the iPhone 18 Fold is an opinion about market sentiment that will be tested when that phone actually launches.
The broader context here is that the Jefferies call gives investors a specific bear case based on supply-chain research, not just general worries about the economy or valuation. The risk is concentrated in Apple's phone lineup: if the Fold is a hit and higher-priced models sell well, the 16% downside thesis falls apart quickly. If the phone roadmap keeps shrinking, the target looks less like a bold contrarian call and more like an early warning sign.
