Is the Prime Minister's Job on the Line Again?

Christopher Luxon, the Prime Minister and leader of the National Party, is facing fresh questions about whether his own MPs still want him in charge. This follows a week where he made several public mistakes, and a new report that his MPs are unhappy. The party's MPs have been called to an online meeting on Tuesday night while Parliament is taking a break (RNZ).

The NZ Herald reported that National MPs spent a day on the phones talking to each other about the situation. One MP confirmed they had received "several" phone calls about a possible change of leader. RNZ spoke to about ten National MPs on Monday night and got mixed responses. Some denied there was any talk of a leadership change.

Luxon told RNZ he was "very confident" in his leadership and had the support of his MPs.

The current round of speculation follows a series of stumbles. Luxon apologised to business leaders in Rotorua after criticising them for having a "parent-child mentality" and relying on government too much. He faced questions about why he was not telling off Foreign Minister Winston Peters after Peters called comments about another MP "racist". He also had to explain why he used a military plane to fly home from a National Party fundraising dinner. On the same day he faced questions about that flight, unemployment figures showed the jobless rate at an 11-year high.

Luxon also decided on his own, without talking to his MPs first, that he would hold a referendum on MMP if re-elected. MMP is the voting system New Zealand uses to elect governments. The decision surprised his own team.

This kind of pressure is not new for Luxon. In April, he called a confidence vote, which is where his MPs vote on whether they still want him as leader. The vote happened because people were questioning whether he was up to the job. He said he was "absolutely not" considering stepping down and said he had the skills to lead the National Party and the country (RNZ). After that vote, Luxon said intense media speculation about his leadership and "who said what to whom" had begun the previous week, and that his MPs had then had a "good, honest" discussion (RNZ).

In the days before that vote, the NZ Herald reported Luxon faced intense pressure in the last week of the previous sitting block, a period that ended with a possible leadership challenge that fortnight (NZ Herald). Luxon was joined by MP Dan Bidois when he addressed speculation that his position was under threat (RNZ).

Luxon blamed the leaks on a "small handful of dissatisfied MPs" and said he would deal with them. He later claimed five "moaning and frustrated" MPs were leaking information to the media (NZ Herald). He then walked back those comments (NZ Herald). The National MPs he said were causing trouble denied leaking to the media (NZ Herald). Luxon said he would not step down despite dropping poll numbers and reports of unrest within the National Party.

The polling backdrop has worsened. An RNZ-Reid Research poll in July had National down 2.1 points to 28.7 percent. That was its fourth drop in a row in the Reid Research series and its worst result since Luxon became leader in November 2021.

The broader context here is that the same cycle keeps repeating: poll numbers drop, a mistake or several mistakes happen, someone inside the party leaks to the media, and the leader has to insist he still has enough support. Luxon survived a confidence vote in April, but the problems that caused it have not gone away. His communication stumbles, the dissatisfaction inside his team, and the softening poll numbers are still there. The Tuesday night meeting, held while Parliament is on a break, will be watched closely. It could either settle things down or make the divisions worse. The MMP referendum decision, made without asking his MPs first, adds a policy disagreement to what has so far been mainly about leadership style and how he manages the party.