Labour drops in the polls — what it means and why Hipkins is staying put

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has defended his performance after a new poll showed Labour dropping to 27.8 percent, its lowest result in that poll series, while the governing coalition retained enough support to stay in power.

The poll was published on Curia Market Research's website on 10 August 2026. It put National on 31.0 percent, Labour on 29.0 percent, the Greens on 10.4 percent, ACT on 7.5 percent, and NZ First on 9.8 percent. A smaller party, Te Pāti Māori, fell below the threshold. The Opportunities Party (TOP) crossed 5 percent, which is the share of the vote a party needs to get into Parliament. (Curia Market Research; 1News; NZ Herald)

In New Zealand, voters get two votes: one for a local MP and one for a party. The party vote is the one that matters most, because it decides how many seats each party gets in Parliament. Think of it as the main pie — the bigger your slice of the party vote, the more seats you get. A party needs 5 percent of that vote to get in at all, unless it wins a local electorate seat outright. After the election, parties team up to form a government if no single party has a majority on its own.

Hipkins' own rating as preferred prime minister rose slightly, up 0.6 points to 19.8 percent. But the party-vote number was the one that mattered: it pulled Labour below 30 percent for the first time in that poll series.

Speaking on RNZ's Morning Report, Hipkins called the poll the product of a "right-wing lobby group" that wanted to keep the current government in office. He was pressed on this, because the same poll back in March showed a drop in National's support and was treated as bad news for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Hipkins did not accept the comparison.

Another poll, by RNZ Reid Research, was conducted between March and July and also showed a drop in Labour support. That poll put Labour higher, at 34 percent, down 1.6 points. Both polls showed the governing coalition able to form a government.

Hipkins said Labour was "significantly better" than at the 2023 election, which he described as an "annihilated" result. He said the election campaign was only just beginning. His focus, he said, was campaigning on Labour's policies: capping public transport fares, making GP visits free, and making it easier for small businesses to win government contracts, with a target of 15 percent of those contracts going to small businesses and start-ups.

He also said people were "disaffected and disillusioned with politics," pointing to racist arguments and politicians debating whether English should be an official language.

On leadership, Hipkins was direct: he would lead Labour into the next election. He said he was "absolutely committed" to leading Labour into government. He did not say whether he would stay on as leader if Labour lost.

Hipkins also ruled out working with New Zealand First in any government he leads. The question had followed him through the previous polling cycle. The rule-out came after the 3.7-point drop in the Curia poll. (RNZ)

Both major-party leaders are under pressure. Luxon's hold on the National leadership was questioned again after a week of communication missteps and a report that his own MPs were unhappy. On the previous Monday, Luxon apologised to leaders from the Rotorua Business Chamber after telling them they had a "parent-child mentality" and relied on government too much. Hipkins had a policy announcement in Rotorua the next day and was asked if the timing was meant to shadow Luxon's event. He did not say. He did offer a line: "Treating people like adults is generally a good approach to take when you're a politician."

The polling picture is not simple for either side. The July Reid Research poll found more than half of those surveyed could be persuaded to vote for a different party. Labour was on 34 percent, the Greens on 10.3 percent, and Te Pāti Māori on 2.3 percent. A separate question asked whether a new leader would save National or Labour: 44.7 percent disagreed and 23.4 percent were unsure. In March, Hipkins led the preferred prime minister measure at 20.7 percent while Luxon's rating dropped.

The broader context here is an unsettled electorate with a lot of voters who could still change their minds, two leaders whose own camps are questioning them, and a third party in TOP now polling high enough to get into Parliament. Hipkins' strategy is to frame the campaign as a choice between Labour's cost-of-living policies and a government whose leader has stumbled publicly. The risk for Labour is that both major polls are trending the wrong way, and ruling out NZ First leaves Labour with only the Greens and Te Pāti Māori as potential coalition partners. For Luxon, the Rotorua apology and the internal dissatisfaction reported by RNZ add to the sense of a government under strain even as its poll numbers hold up.

Neither leader can take much comfort from where things stand. The coalition can form a government, but only barely. Labour is polling better than 2023 but worse than its mid-winter peak. And the electorate, by its own account, has not made up its mind.