Labour gets a sudden shot at a National stronghold seat

Labour's candidate for Kaipara ki Mahurangi, Jo Swinburn, says he is feeling optimistic about winning the seat after National's Chris Penk confirmed he will not stand in the 2026 election.

Penk announced on Wednesday night, in a statement from the Prime Minister's office, that he would not seek re-election after talking it over with his family. The news came after a rough week for National. Penk had tried to take over as leader from Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, which led to a vote of confidence that Luxon survived. Penk was then dropped from Cabinet and lost all his ministerial roles after a long meeting of National MPs. RNZ

National Party president Sylvia Wood said in a statement to RNZ that the party acknowledges Penk's resignation and his contribution over the last nine years. She confirmed a new candidate for the seat will be chosen following the party's rules.

Swinburn told RNZ that Penk's departure had changed things. He said people in the area were not particularly happy with where National is at the moment. He said the race was now competitive in a seat that has been a National stronghold for years.

Swinburn himself has only been the candidate for about three weeks. He said this was his first time in politics and that he was brought in after Labour's previous candidate, Tracey-Lee Repia, stepped down. That does not give him much time before campaigning gets serious, but Penk's exit has changed the contest.

Penk, a law graduate and former navy officer, has held the Kaipara ki Mahurangi seat since it was created for the 2020 election. He won it by 4,435 votes in 2020 and grew that margin a lot in 2023, winning by 19,459 votes. He previously held the earlier version of the seat, Helensville, after former National Prime Minister John Key retired.

In New Zealand, each electorate votes for a local MP, but voters also get a party vote that helps decide the overall make-up of Parliament. So even when a sitting MP leaves, a party's general popularity in the area still matters. A 19,459-vote majority is a big gap to close. But Swinburn's argument is that local frustration with the government and the loss of a well-known sitting MP might be enough to make the seat competitive.

The race is not just between Labour and National. The Opportunities Party has said it will also run a candidate in the seat, which adds another element to a contest National will now have to fight with a newcomer.

The wider picture here is that Penk's departure from Parliament comes after a leadership challenge, a demotion from Cabinet, and a decision not to run again, all within a single week. That will be read by party organisers and volunteers as a test of how united National is heading into the campaign. For Labour, it creates a small but real chance in a seat the party would not have expected to fight for. Whether Swinburn, with three weeks as a candidate and no political experience, can turn that chance into a strong result is what the electorate vote will come down to.

The next thing to watch will be how National picks its new candidate. The party's rules set out the process, but time is tight with the election campaign approaching. Until a replacement is named, National has no visible candidate in a seat it has held in some form since the John Key era.