The Pentagon Now Says Aukus Is 'Full Steam Ahead.' Here's What's Actually Going On.

A top Pentagon official has declared the Aukus defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK to be "full steam ahead." That is the same phrase President Donald Trump used when he met Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in October 2025.

The official is Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of war and the third-highest-ranking person at the Pentagon. He wrote the Trump administration's review of the Aukus deal. At a press briefing on Thursday, he said the Pentagon was "very pleased" with progress and that the review had "provided a roadmap for the success of the Aukus program." He called Australia a partner with which the US had "no better ally" (The Guardian).

What makes this interesting is that Colby used to be a sceptic. His original review was understood to doubt whether Aukus would work. That draft was rewritten — possibly twice — to match the president's view that the deal was "full steam ahead" (ABC News).

So what is Aukus, in plain terms? It is a defence agreement between Australia, the US and the UK. A key part of it involves Australia buying between three and five nuclear-powered submarines from the US. The first is supposed to arrive in 2032. After that, Australia would build its own Aukus-class submarines. The UK is also planning to launch its first purpose-built Aukus submarine for the Royal Navy by the late 2030s.

Now for the problem. US shipbuilders are currently making submarines at a rate of about 1.1 to 1.2 per year. The US Navy needs that rate to reach two boats a year just to meet its own needs. To have any spare submarines to sell to Australia, the production line has to hit 2.33 boats a year. Picture a factory that cannot make enough cars for its own dealers, let alone a new customer overseas. On top of that, the US submarine fleet is currently 49 boats, against a target of 66.

There is also a legal hurdle. Before any submarine can be handed over to Australia, the US president must certify that doing so will not weaken the US Navy's submarine fleet. With the fleet already 17 boats short, that is not a guaranteed yes.

Colby's message at the briefing was confident: the review had settled things, a roadmap was in place, and the Pentagon was pleased.

The thing is, that roadmap relies on shipyards building submarines faster than they ever have, and on a presidential sign-off that has to balance selling boats to an ally against a fleet that is already short. Anyone who has followed Aukus knows the gap between the hopeful talk and the production numbers. What is new is hearing it from Colby — the man whose review reportedly started with doubts before being rewritten to match the president's line. Whether the shipyards can actually deliver is a question no press briefing will answer.