Most Democrats in Key 2028 Primary States Say Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza
A poll released on August 24, 2026 found that most Democratic voters in the six states that will start the 2028 Democratic presidential primary believe Israel is committing genocide — the deliberate destruction of a group of people — in Gaza. The survey, run by the polling company YouGov for the IMEU Policy Project, covered South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. It also found strong support in all six states for sanctions on Israel (penalties meant to pressure a government by restricting trade or financial activity) and for enforcing the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Al Jazeera
The poll comes at a significant moment. In August 2026, the Democratic Party finalized its 2028 primary calendar, confirming South Carolina as the first state to vote on January 22, followed by weekly elections in Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. These early states carry outsized weight because they help determine which candidate builds momentum. The survey captured voter opinion in exactly these states. Al Jazeera
In Michigan, 80% of respondents answered yes when asked, "Do you believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians living in Gaza?" Among voters under 45, that number rose to 91%. In Nevada, 78% of Democratic voters agreed. Michigan's result fits its profile as a state with a large Arab American population that has been central to Democratic organizing around Israel policy. Al Jazeera Common Dreams
On military aid, the numbers were just as striking. In South Carolina, the first state to vote, 52% said they oppose selling weapons to Israel. An arms embargo — a ban on weapons sales — is what that position would amount to if turned into policy. Only 2% in South Carolina said they favor military support for Israel. In one surveyed state, 4% said the US should provide weapons to Israel, while 31% said they did not know. In Nevada, 74% of voters said the US should end its support for Israel altogether. Al Jazeera IMEU Policy Project Common Dreams
The IMEU Policy Project, which calls itself a think tank supporting Palestinians' human rights, paid for the survey. Hamid Bendaas, a spokesperson for the group, said the poll shows that support for Israel among Democratic voters "has become negligible" and that voters "back strong policies against Israel such as sanctions." Al Jazeera
The poll follows a longer trend of declining Democratic support for Israel. In January 2026, an Arab Center DC event noted that 77% of Democrats nationally said Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Reuters reported in August 2026 that only 16% of Democrats backed continued military and economic aid to Israel, while 57% opposed it. Arab Center DC Reuters
The polling also arrives as the 2028 Democratic primary is already quietly underway. Reuters reported in July 2026 that Democratic contenders were taking early steps toward potential presidential bids. According to Arab Center DC, all three rival candidates for the Democratic nomination have said Israel's Gaza war constitutes genocide and want to end offensive weapons sales. Two of them want to cut off US military aid entirely. One candidate, El-Sayed, sharply criticized US military aid to Israel, called the war a genocide, and said money for Israel would be cut. Reuters Arab Center DC Arab Center DC
The broader context here is that Israel policy has shifted from a side issue in US foreign policy to one of the most important dividing lines inside the Democratic Party. The state-level detail in this poll matters because these six early contests will, in sequence, help determine which candidates gain delegates and momentum. A candidate who supports sanctions, an arms embargo, and ICC enforcement will find a receptive audience. A candidate who does not will face voters whose views have moved sharply in the other direction.
There is one important caveat. The IMEU Policy Project is an advocacy group, not a neutral research organization. YouGov is a well-regarded pollster, but the organization that pays for a survey can influence how questions are worded, and wording affects answers. The genocide question, for example, asks everyday voters to apply a legal term that international courts have spent years debating. That said, the overall direction of the data is consistent across multiple sources and time frames, and the gap between what Democratic voters believe and what longstanding US policy on Israel supports is wide and getting wider.
