What to Know About the 2026 Midterm Elections Starting Now
The 2026 midterm campaign season formally opens on September 7, 2026. Control of both chambers of Congress, the House and the Senate, depends on a small number of close races. Which candidates each party picks is shaping the Senate map. NPR's Leila Fadel interviewed Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, about what to expect from Democrats and Republicans. NPR
The Cook Political Report rates all 435 House seats on a scale from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican. As of August 25, 2026, the ratings count 184 seats as Solid Democratic and 182 as Solid Republican. The remaining seats in play include 21 that lean toward Democrats and 27 that lean toward Republicans. Think of these ratings like a weather forecast for each race: a Solid rating means one party is heavily favored, while a Lean or Likely rating means the race is competitive but tilts one way. Cook Political Report
In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election in 2026. Thirty-three are for regular six-year terms and two are for special elections to fill vacancies, according to Ballotpedia. Ballotpedia The Cook Political Report's Senate ratings, also from August 25, 2026, list 46 Democratic seats, 4 Independent seats, and 50 Republican seats. Of the 35 seats up for election, the ratings identify 9 as Solid Democrat, 1 as Likely Democrat, and 3 as Lean Democrat. The remaining Senate seats, 34 held by Democrats and 31 held by Republicans, are not up for re-election this cycle. Cook Political Report
Candidate selection has already changed the Senate picture. Sabato's Crystal Ball, a political newsletter at the University of Virginia, moved the Florida Senate race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican after Florida Democrats chose a more progressive candidate. A progressive candidate is one who favors more liberal policies, which in this case did not match the state's electorate as closely. Sabato's Crystal Ball
Primaries, where each party picks its nominees, have shaped the races across the country. On May 18, 2026, the busiest primary day so far, polls closed in six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. NPR In Arizona's July 21 primaries, candidates backed by President Trump won over other Republicans in the race for governor and other key contests. NPR
Vote-counting has also drawn attention this cycle. NPR reported that California counts votes more slowly than possibly any other state, and that President Trump falsely called the delayed results election fraud. NPR
Charlie Cook has a long track record as a forecaster. In 2009, he predicted Democrats would lose between 15 and 25 House seats in 2010, which would have cut deeply into the party's then-40-seat majority. NPR The Cook Political Report has also rated competitive districts in past cycles, including a Texas congressional seat rated Likely Republican in 2018 that Democrats were targeting after decades of GOP control. NPR
The broader context here is what these ratings mean for November. The Cook Political Report's August numbers point to a House battlefield where party committees and outside groups will focus money on roughly four dozen competitive seats. With 21 Democratic-leaning seats rated against 27 Republican-leaning ones, the current snapshot gives Democrats a narrow edge in the seats they are defending. But the number of swing districts is small enough that a late shift in the national mood could change the map quickly. The Senate picture is more stable: with 50 Republican seats already rated and only a few Democratic-held seats in the competitive columns, Democrats would need to win every contested state and hold every seat they currently have to take a majority.
Primary outcomes have tested both parties' candidate quality. In Arizona, Trump-endorsed Republicans won contested primaries for governor and other statewide offices. That result will test whether those nominees can win in November. In Florida, Democratic voters chose a more progressive Senate candidate, which moved the race off the competitive list at Sabato's Crystal Ball and narrowed the already small number of Senate seats Democrats could realistically pick up. These outcomes show how primary voters in both parties are picking nominees whose political profiles may either help or hurt their party in the general election.
