Oil Just Hit $107. Why Should You Care?
Brent crude oil settled at $107.63 a barrel, up $6.42 or 6.34%, in numbers reported Sept. 11. Reuters U.S. oil passed $100 a barrel for the first time since May.
Brent is the world price for oil. WTI is the U.S. price. Settlement is the closing price for the day.
The climb to $107.63
Brent had crossed $100 to settle at its highest close since late May, according to reporting published Sept. 9. Reuters Other reporting that day said Brent rose past $100 for the first time since July 24. The first is about closing prices. The second is about prices during the day.
Earlier, Brent rose 1.3% to $99.22 a barrel. WTI rose 1.2% to $94.13 a barrel.
The pipeline attack
Disruption centered on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. The attack used several drones launched from Iraq. The targets were in the Riyadh and Madinah regions.
Bahrain condemned the targeting of the pipeline in a statement published Sept. 12. Saudi Press Agency
Forecasts versus spot prices
Prices for oil for delivery right now are above Wall Street forecasts for the second half of 2026. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts Brent to average $86 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. J.P. Morgan
The bank cut its outlook for the second half of 2026 because stored oil was used more slowly than expected. The bank said stocks are drawing less quickly than modeled.
J.P. Morgan's 2026 Market Outlook includes a Brent price forecast of $58 in 2026. The same outlook states oil prices averaged about $68 this year, down from $80 in 2024. Those old levels sit about $40 below the current $107.63 price and about $20 below the bank's own $86 third-quarter average forecast.
Chase published analysis on Sept. 11 titled "$100 Oil Isn't as Scary as It Used to Be." The piece states shoppers and investors look better able to handle higher oil prices. Chase
The broader context here is there are two prices at once. The bank's view is built on stored oil, extra supply from OPEC, the group of oil-producing countries, and a fall back to lower prices. Today's price is about fear that oil may not get through. An attack on pipes in central Saudi Arabia reprices oil for now first, like paying extra for same-day delivery when the normal road is closed.
In my view, the $86 and $80 averages are best read as normal forecasts, not limits on daily jumps. Slow use of stored oil points to lower prices later if demand stays weak or supply returns. It does not stop a jump when pipes are hit. That is how forecasts can go down while prices jump 6% in one day.
Looking at what this means for your money, the gap is $107.63 now against $80 for the fourth quarter. That means prices must fall a lot, forecasts must prove wrong, or near-term tightness must last. For shoppers, the Chase case rests on stronger bank accounts and tolerance for higher fuel costs. For oil firms, the attack brings focus to backup routes, where oil is stored, and price gaps around other export paths. Price swings pass the pain along, even if averages end closer to the bank's call.
