Oil Fell, But Your Gas Bill May Stay High
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026, after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering extra oil shipments through Oman. Prices slipped again in Asian trade on Thursday, Sept. 17. At the same time, U.S. oil held in storage rose. Reuters
That drop gave back part of an earlier rise. On Monday, Sept. 14, oil had ended about 1% higher after new strikes raised fears about supply. Reuters
The fear was about Saudi Arabia. A broken pipeline threatened 4% of the world's oil supply. Saudi oil stored at ports could keep exports going for 5-7 days. Reuters In August, Saudi supply had already dropped by 2.3 million barrels per day to 6 million per day. That is a daily flow count. Reuters
Gas in Europe looked different. On Sept. 16, 2026 at 6AM CEST, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported EU storage at 775.00 TWh and 68.49% full. TWh means terawatt-hours, a unit of energy. Austria held 67.31 TWh and was 67.12% full. Belgium held 4.52 TWh and was 59.39% full.
Those tanks were low in spring. Reuters reported in May 2026 that European stores were at about 38.2% of capacity, against a normal spring level of roughly 52%. Reuters By July, sites across the European Union were about 52% full, with pumping into storage running below last year's pace. In January, fast withdrawals had left stores less than 52% full.
That is still far from full. The Wall Street Journal cited Gas Infrastructure Europe data showing European stores at 93.31% full in early December 2023. Spain was at 98.61% full and Germany at 93.99% full.
Gas prices for today and the near term were reported as follows. Reuters reported on May 21, 2026 that prices at the Dutch TTF hub, the main place where Europe's gas price is set, were around 50 euros per megawatt hour, a unit of energy price, after rising to 74 euros per megawatt hour in March. On Sept. 3, the Wall Street Journal reported prices rose more than 2% to just shy of 74 euros per megawatt-hour amid what it called severely disrupted supply flows from Qatar. WSJ
Prices set now for later delivery, called futures, were higher than official forecasts. CME Group quoted October 2026 Dutch TTF futures at 79.520, November at 79.305, December at 79.131 and January 2027 at 78.964. ICE listed the Summer 27 contract at 56.060 as of Sept. 14, 2026, and the Q3 27 contract at 52.295 as of Sept. 11, 2026. The European Central Bank forecast December futures at 60.1 euros per megawatt hour in its central case and 77 euros in its tougher case. Reuters
The broader context here is that oil and gas split apart. Oil got quick help from extra ships via Oman. Gas did not. December gas near 79 euros is priced above the tougher ECB case of 77 euros.
In my view, the storage math helps explain that gap. The rise from 38.2% in May to 68.49% in mid-September is a big refill, like restocking a pantry for winter. It still leaves Europe without the near-full cover of December 2023. Winter gas near 79 euros against low-50s for summer and Q3 2027 means paying extra to have gas ready in cold months. For inflation, the general rise in prices that lifts bills, that matters. Gas at these forward prices keeps upward pressure even as oil softens on Saudi replacement cargoes.
