Sixteen people were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region on June 18, 2026, according to the regional governor. The attack is part of a larger pattern: both Ukraine and Russia are launching more and more aerial strikes against each other.

Two days before that strike, Ukrainian drones hit a Moscow oil refinery and shut it down, Reuters reported. These attacks show that Ukraine is moving its drone operations closer to Russia's capital — a shift that has been building through the spring.

Why is Ukraine targeting oil refineries? Ukrainian forces are deliberately attacking Russian energy and fuel infrastructure, AP News reported in early June. The logic is straightforward: if you damage fuel supplies, you slow down the military's operations. Think of it like cutting off a supply line — when soldiers can't move as easily or send aircraft on as many missions, their ability to fight decreases over time. Ukraine also struck a target in Russia's Krasnodar region, killing one person and injuring three, which shows the campaign covers a wider area than just Moscow.

Russia's Response: Massive Drone and Missile Strikes

Russia has not held back. In a single overnight in early June, Russian forces launched 656 drones and 73 missiles at Ukraine, killing at least 22 people, AP News reported on June 2.

Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces intercepted five HIMARS rounds, eight "Flamingo" cruise missiles, and 3,909 Ukrainian drones in one week in June. If those numbers are accurate, they show the sheer volume of weapons being fired back and forth.

The civilian cost is rising. Russia's Foreign Ministry reported that between June 3 and 9, Ukrainian drones injured 13 people, including six children, in the Donetsk People's Republic (an area controlled by Russia). Earlier in May, the Ministry said Ukrainian strikes killed five people and reported that Ukrainian forces struck a college building and dormitory with a drone — a claim Ukraine has not publicly accepted.

A Wider Geographic Risk

A separate concern has emerged in Russia's Bryansk Region. Vladimir Putin issued instructions on June 17 to help people injured in what the Kremlin called a Ukrainian terrorist attack there, Kremlin.ru reported. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also raised an incident involving a bus carrying Belarusian children in the same region. That claim carries political weight because Belarus is aligned with Russia, and damage to Belarusian citizens could pull in another country's government.

Putin had mentioned a drone incident involving Romania during a press conference in May — Romania is a NATO member and sits next to Ukraine. When drones fly into NATO countries' airspace, it raises questions about whether the conflict could expand beyond Ukraine's borders.

The Current Stalemate

Both Ukraine and Russia are trying to damage each other without formally expanding the war into new countries or provoking a larger conflict. Ukraine is targeting Russia's fuel and industrial capacity to weaken Moscow's long-term military power. Russia is continuing to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure to maintain pressure on Kyiv.

Neither side's campaign has won a decisive advantage yet. But what has shifted since spring is how many strikes are happening and how many civilians are affected. Injured children in the Donetsk region, a major refinery shut down near Moscow, dozens injured in a single night — these are not abstract numbers for the governments deciding whether to escalate further. For Russia, the closer these attacks land to Moscow, the more domestic political pressure builds on the Kremlin. For Ukraine, every successful strike on Russian energy infrastructure strengthens its position in any future peace negotiations.

Both sides appear willing and able to keep up this pace of operations for now. Whether this continues until a diplomatic agreement, or whether it escalates into something larger, remains unclear.