Why Your Savings Feel the AI Boom — and Why 2026 Could Be the Peak
Goldman Sachs says the AI spending boom lifting S&P 500 profits will fade after this year. The assessment was reported on Sept. 19 and positions 2026 as the high-water mark for the current capex contribution to index earnings. Business Insider The S&P 500 is 500 large U.S. companies. Many pensions and savings follow it.
Chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider said the firm's base case is for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate, not collapse, in coming years. Yahoo Finance That means profits still grow, but more slowly. Snider holds an 8000 year-end price target for the S&P 500. He is chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings per share to increase 12% in 2026 and 10% the following year. Goldman Sachs Earnings per share is profit per share. Snider estimates that AI-related investment will drive approximately 40% of S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth in 2026. In the same outlook, Goldman Sachs forecast US stocks to rise 6% in 2026. Goldman Sachs Capex is money spent building things like data centers.
Goldman's research momentum signal stood in the 98th percentile and its market breadth signal stood in the 94th percentile, indicating extreme elevation. MarketWatch Momentum means price trends kept going. Breadth means many stocks joined in.
The broader context here is what kind of growth this is. When close to half of growth comes from one building spree, it is less steady than growth from broad customer demand, pricing power or lasting efficiency gains. Like a town living off one big construction job, suppliers get paid first. Then the new buildings must earn money.
In my view the worry is that earnings path against crowded bets. Growth of 12% then 10% is already a step down. If the AI share returns to normal, other companies must do more to reach the same 8000 target. When momentum and breadth are very high, bad news does not stay in one place. It spreads to others lifted by the same story.
Looking at what this means for risk management, watch the mix, not just the total. Split AI-building profit from everything else. That rest decides if 8000 can hold with normal prices or needs higher prices for slower growth. Calm slowing lets income from using AI replace profit from building AI. A sharp stop forces a rethink of future profits without help that had lifted margins.
For trading desks and allocators, the message is timing. Goldman is not describing an earnings collapse. It is describing peak contribution. Headlines can still look good while early signs cool. So watch spending plans, order books, forecasts outside the AI chain, what bosses say on calls about project returns, and whether big spending still turns into cash.
