Why One Company's Results Could Move Your Retirement Savings
U.S. company profits in the S&P 500 are expected to jump 29.1% for the third quarter of 2026, led by Micron Technology ahead of Nvidia. The estimate comes from FactSet data cited in a Sept. 27 MarketWatch analysis titled 'Micron could dethrone Nvidia and become the biggest driver of S&P 500 profit growth'.
The forecast
Without Micron, that growth would be 24%, according to the same analysis. The 5.1-point gap comes from one company out of 500. The S&P 500 is capitalization-weighted, which means larger companies pull more weight in the total. Think of it like a class average lifted by one very high test score.
The same switch happened last quarter. Micron passed Nvidia as the top contributor to earnings growth for Q2 2026, according to a July 9 Lipper Alpha review.
The date to watch
Micron will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30, 2026, with a results call starting at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time to be webcast live, the company said in an Aug. 26 statement. Micron A Post Earnings Analyst Call is also scheduled for September 30, according to its events calendar. Micron That September 30 date is the next scheduled report.
On August 27, Reuters reported Nvidia had forecast 70% revenue growth for the next year, a guide that lifted Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures and fueled gains across technology stocks. Reuters On September 14, Reuters reported Nvidia shares fell 3.4% while Micron shares dropped more than 5% on AI slowdown concerns. Reuters As of May 8, the S&P 500 had gained 8% in 2026 while the Nasdaq had rallied 13%. Reuters
The broader context here is how much rides on one company. Without Micron, growth is 510 basis points below the headline. A basis point is a tiny unit, and 100 of them equal one percentage point. A beat or miss on sales, profit margins, or future guidance from Micron goes straight to the S&P 500 number. Results from the other 499 companies matter less for the headline. For savers in index funds, that is the number your account follows.
Looking toward September 30, forecasts already put Micron ahead of Nvidia, and prices reflect that order. What counts now is how many forecasts are moving up or down and how high the bar is. One big quarter from one company does not set long-run profits. It makes the index more sensitive to what Micron says next.
