Myanmar's military government controls only 21 percent of the country. Rebel groups and ethnic armed organisations now hold 42 percent. This shift is the clearest sign yet of how badly the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has lost ground since it took over the government on February 1, 2021.

For decades, armed groups in Myanmar were mostly confined to border regions—the ethnic homelands in the Shan, Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin areas. But starting in 2023, they started moving into new territory, including areas the military had controlled since the coup. ACLED analysis from November 2024 documented this shift. The People's Defence Force, the armed wing of the National Unity Government, has worked alongside these ethnic groups in a loose alliance against the regime.

The cost to civilians has been enormous. A February 2025 UN report counted more than 1,800 civilians killed in 2024 alone—the deadliest year since the coup. Villages have been hit by airstrikes. Populated areas have been shelled with artillery. International monitors have documented systematic sexual violence. In January 2025, governments around the world formally condemned the military's violence and human rights abuses.

Last April, an earthquake struck Myanmar. The military announced a ceasefire to let aid reach people. Within days, the military resumed bombing and shelling—a pattern Reuters documented through incident data. When ASEAN, the regional bloc, met in May 2025, leaders expressed concern and called for a longer ceasefire, though the group struggles to pressure member states.

Myanmar's Bigger Problem

The military conflict is only part of a much larger breakdown. The UN said in January 2025 that Myanmar faces a "polycrisis"—multiple disasters happening at the same time and making each other worse. The economy has collapsed. The currency is nearly worthless. Banking has broken down. Food is scarce in war zones. Millions have been displaced from their homes.

These facts change what the territory numbers really mean. A military controlling one-fifth of the country is not simply losing battles. It is losing the ability to tax its citizens, recruit soldiers, supply its forces, and govern. The Tatmadaw has responded by relying on air power, which requires fewer soldiers on the ground but causes massive civilian harm and turns populations against the regime.

For the rebel groups, territorial gains hide a deeper problem. Some armed organisations want to control their own ethnic regions. Others support a unified, federal democratic system. These are not the same goal. As the military weakens, these groups are already competing over what comes next and who controls valuable territory. Alliances made against a common enemy often fall apart when that enemy starts losing.

The outside world has done little to help. Sanctions on military leaders and arms embargoes have not seriously damaged the Tatmadaw's ability to fight, partly because the military buys weapons from countries outside Western control. ASEAN's plan from 2021 has never been put into action. The UN's special representative has limited access. Any aid effort depends on cooperation from a military that broke its own ceasefire.

Five years after the coup, the military has not defeated the insurgency, and the resistance has not built the unity and strength needed to govern effectively. Myanmar is stuck in a prolonged crisis: violent, expensive in human lives, and with no clear way out.