Netflix Fell a Lot This Year. Why One Bank Still Sees Room to Rise

Deutsche Bank cut its target for Netflix stock to $95 from $100 on September 29, 2026, but still told clients to buy after the drop in September. CNBC The new $95 target meant about 37% upside from Monday's closing price. Upside is the possible gain if the stock reaches the target. CNBC Netflix shares were down about 24% for the year as of September 29. MarketWatch

The call came from analyst Bryan Kraft. Yahoo Finance Kraft said Netflix traded at 18 times Deutsche Bank's 2027 earnings estimate. That is like a price tag. Investors would pay $18 for each $1 of expected profit. Yahoo Finance In June, that price tag was much higher, about 40 times expected earnings. Yahoo Finance Even with the lower target, Deutsche Bank analysts still saw room for large gains. MarketWatch

To understand the move, look at the pairing. The target went down. The advice stayed positive. That often means the bank trimmed its forecast without dropping its main view. The stock price had already fallen a lot. The target followed.

The broader context here is why that price tag fell. Part of it is the lower stock price. Part is that the bank now looks to 2027 profit instead of nearer profit. That shifts the debate to whether Netflix can keep earning solid cash in 2027, not just next quarter.

In my view, the risk now sits with that 2027 profit guess. Supporters will see 18 times as a lower starting point after a 24% fall. Doubters will ask if the old 40 times price was too high, and if profit guesses could fall again.

For people watching the market, the key is order. The 37% gain does not need the old high price tag to return. It needs investors to trust the 2027 profit guess. If that guess holds, time helps. If it drops, the low price tag will not protect the stock.

Looking ahead, expect some choppy trading. A lower target can scare some sellers. The promise of upside can bring in other buyers. Which group trades more will decide the next move.