A Famous Bond Skeptic Says It's Finally Time to Buy
Jim Bianco turned bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds on September 28, 2026. It was his first bullish stance since 2020, according to Bloomberg. He said rising yields, the yearly payout new buyers receive, had made it a better time to buy.
By his account, yields had risen enough to make up for duration risk, the way longer-term bond prices swing when rates move. It was about timing the purchase, not a new forecast for growth, inflation or policy.
The broader context here is the difference between price and value. Think of it like a store sale. The product is the same, but the lower price makes the deal better. A higher starting payout means more income over time and more protection if prices fall again. That matters for savers and borrowers because Treasury yields feed into bank and mortgage rates.
In my view, the length of his bearish stance is why desks are paying attention. When a longtime skeptic flips on price alone, others can follow the breakeven math, how far yields can rise before the trade loses money, without agreeing on the economy.
Looking at what this means for positioning, bullish can take different forms. It can mean buying bonds outright, betting on short-term versus long-term maturities, or favoring Treasuries over foreign bonds or corporate debt. Each choice brings different risk and cost. His payout argument points to buying outright. The next detail is whether that means medium-term bonds or the long end, where price swings are larger and supply and liquidity matter more.
In my view, a better entry price is not the same as a market turn. Higher payouts improve the return math. They do not stop yields from rising further. Momentum, crowded trades unwinding and large institutional flows can still push prices lower. Without a trigger that changes views on long-term rates or term premium, the extra pay for holding longer bonds, this works as a short-term add, not a new era.
Looking at what this means for risk, size is the discipline. Longer bonds magnify losses as fast as gains, and breakevens can be tested quickly. That is why price-based buys are often built in stages. Income builds over time, so patience matters.
