Oil Started Flowing Again, but Prices Stayed High
Middle East oil exports outside Iran rose above pre-war levels on four days in the last week of September 2026, and flows through the Strait of Hormuz were mostly back to normal by early October. That oil is what becomes petrol and diesel, so it affects what families pay to drive and heat.
Tracking firm Kpler recorded exports outside Iran above pre-war levels in late September, in numbers described on Oct. 4 and Oct. 5. Kpler via The Daily Star The four-day run was reported by Iran International.
By early October, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane that carries much Gulf oil, were largely back to levels before the Iran war. The Guardian reported this return on Oct. 2, pointing to Hormuz traffic and Gulf loadings including diesel.
Oil prices dropped in early trading on Oct. 1 as recovering exports and emergency oil released by the Group of Seven eased supply worries. The Wall Street Journal Prices were still high and the risk of bad headlines was still high.
The drop came after a September surge. On Sept. 9, Brent futures, the main world oil price for delivery in the near term, closed up $3.29, or 3.4%, at $101.21 a barrel after hitting $101.58 during the day. Reuters That close put Brent back over $100 after weeks of disruption.
Commonwealth Bank said Middle East energy exports fell after the MoU collapse. Commonwealth Bank Its 2026 full-year presentation separately said oil prices were high because of the Middle East conflict. Commonwealth Bank
For comparison, on Aug. 12 oil futures closed up 0.2% at $92.60 a barrel. The Wall Street Journal The same report said Saudi Arabia had reopened the East-West pipeline, another way to move some Gulf oil without using Hormuz.
Screens without a date showed Brent at 100.32 USD a barrel, up 1.93 or 1.89%, and U.S. oil (WTI) at 89.19 USD a barrel, up 0.24 or 0.27%. Bloomberg These are live screens, not official daily closes.
The broader context here is a market caught between shortage and recovery. One side worries about missing barrels, Hormuz risk, and emergency and business stocks. The other side sees tankers loading again and backup pipelines working. Late September points to recovery. Four days above pre-war levels do not undo the MoU shortfall or the run to $101.21, but they help refiners buying oil for the last three months of the year.
In my view, the test is whether flows hold and what they cover. The Kpler numbers leave out Iran. Hormuz is mostly, not fully, back. G7 releases can fill a short gap, like using food from the pantry, but they cannot replace steady pumping and loading. If loadings stay above pre-war levels into October, the gap between near and later prices and big daily price swings should calm from September highs. If they slip, the $101.58 high on Sept. 9 shows how fast prices can jump.
