Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan firmly ruled out any deal with One Nation on Sunday. He told ABC's Insiders the idea wasn't happening and the Liberals weren't interested.

"We do not want to be part of a coalition with One Nation," Tehan told Insiders. He repeated this three times to be absolutely clear. "We want to be part of a coalition with the Liberal party and the National party. We're not entertaining or discussing or being part of a coalition with One Nation."

But his own party colleagues are saying different things. Andrew Hastie, another Liberal frontbencher, has vowed to go to "war" against One Nation. Tony Pasin, a junior shadow minister, suggested a seat-sharing arrangement instead. Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie said she'd campaign for Hanson in certain seats. Tony Abbott, the former prime minister and Liberal party president, has backed preference deals with One Nation (that means the two parties tell their voters to support each other if their own candidate doesn't win).

So you have four senior Liberals or near-Liberals taking four completely different positions — from all-out conflict to basically working together.

Here's why this matters more than just internal squabbling: new polling shows Labor at 30%, One Nation at 26%, and the Liberals at 23%. That means One Nation is polling higher than the official opposition. It's a real problem for opposition leader Angus Taylor that one Sunday interview won't solve.

Tehan's reasoning is understandable. If One Nation takes votes from the Liberals, the Liberals can often get those votes back through preference deals — where the two parties swap recommendations. A formal partnership, though, would change how people see the Liberal brand. And the Liberals need voters in cities and suburbs to win government. Those voters don't like being associated with One Nation.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was at a Labor conference telling everyone the Liberals, Nationals, and One Nation are all the same thing — an "axis of grievance." He's trying to tie them together in voters' minds. It's smart politics — the longer the opposition fights about One Nation on the front page, the longer he gets to control the story.

The real issue for the Liberals is whether Tehan's position will actually hold. No one inside the party is seriously suggesting One Nation should have cabinet seats. But the harder problems are about preferences, who campaigns where, and whether Nationals members keep doing their own thing. McKenzie's willingness to campaign for Hanson in Labor seats is a real fact. The difference between a formal coalition and a backroom preference deal might be legal, but it's hard to explain when your own polling is below the party you're competing against.