Why Oil Just Hit $110 a Barrel, and Why Ships Are the Reason
Oil prices hit $110 a barrel on Friday, October 16, 2026, the first time since May, according to Al Jazeera. That is the price of Brent crude, the main world oil price. The rise came as ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that oil tankers use.
UKMTO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency, which tracks ship incidents, reported at least 12 ships attacked in the week ending that Friday. The Guardian reported on October 19 that at least 15 vessels had been struck over the previous 10 days. CNBC reported that eleven tankers came under attack in the week ending October 4, which it called the most strikes on commercial ships since the war began.
The attacks have also changed in kind. On September 20, a ship was hit by an unknown projectile that breached the hull and started a fire, which was put out. On October 5, UKMTO issued four warnings and an advisory about Iranian targeting of vessels. On October 13, a container ship and a tanker were struck in two separate incidents. The next day, a 50,000 tonne container ship was hit with minor damage, according to UKMTO Warning 172-26. Oil rose again in early trading that Wednesday, as reported by Euronews, citing Reuters.
On Sunday, October 18, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after hitting a naval mine in the southern strait, as Reuters reported. A mine is a different kind of threat. Think of a hidden trap on a path, rather than an object thrown from a distance.
In my view, that matters because mines are harder to spot and harder to avoid, which makes it harder to decide how to escort ships or what insurers should charge.
A UKMTO report dated October 2 says that none of the vessels that were hijacked or boarded had been reporting to UKMTO before the incident. In my view, that matters because reporting is one of the few things a ship's captain fully controls, and it decides how fast help can arrive.
Oil has moved in a pattern this year. On July 14, Reuters reported oil rose 2% to a one-month high as US-Iran attacks deepened supply disruption. On July 31, oil rose after Iran said it stops ships in the strait. On August 7, oil rose on concerns about plans to reopen the strait.
In my view, markets keep pricing in the risk of disruption, even when the promised reopening has not happened yet.
The Independent described attacks on ships in the strait as at a record high.
Here is what is known. Ships have been hit again and again, UKMTO's counts are rising in some periods, and oil has reached $110.
In my view, the price now includes a risk premium, the extra amount traders add when they fear supply could run short. How long that premium lasts depends on how long the attacks go on. These figures count attacks on ships, not barrels of oil lost, and that difference matters.
The broader context here is your wallet. Higher fuel and shipping costs reach shop prices slowly, and interest rates on loans can move with inflation expectations. These effects are less visible than a headline price, but they are the ones people will eventually pay.
