Singapore Dollar Holds Steady as Traders Wait for the Fed

The Singapore dollar traded in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar during the Asian session, as attention turned to the Federal Reserve's policy decision, according to the Wall Street Journal. The same report said higher oil prices could weigh on the Singapore dollar.

The Fed's meeting runs Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27 and 28. The Fed's calendar lists a press conference on October 28. The question is a narrow one. Policymakers raised rates in September, their first increase since 2023. Now the market is asking whether they will hold steady in October.

The Fed is the U.S. central bank. Its main tool is the federal funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of their spare cash. The Fed steers that rate through a target range. Bloomberg reported that the top of the range was 4% in October. Bloomberg Economics forecast the rate would still be 4% at the end of 2026.

A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. So a quarter-point move would be 25 basis points.

Market expectations have moved toward a hold. Reuters reported on October 14 that traders put a 65% chance on no change at the October meeting, up from 53% a month earlier. Bloomberg reported on October 16 that investors had cut back their bets on a rate hike at that meeting. By October 25, Bloomberg described the Fed as looking set to pause after September's increase, with inflation still above its target.

A 65% chance is a market estimate. It is not a promise from the Fed. It also leaves 35% on something other than a hold, and that is a large share for a meeting this close.

The dollar has stayed firm while those bets were unwinding. On October 26 it slipped, but it stayed near a one-month high. A Reuters commentary from late September noted that many Asian currencies weakened sharply against the dollar during the Fed's period of raising rates. That history is one reason regional currency traders treat each Fed decision as a live event, not a formality.

For ordinary savers and borrowers, a hold keeps the policy rate where it is. The direction matters more. Deposit rates, adjustable-rate mortgages and credit lines tend to move with where the benchmark is heading, not with one unchanged decision. Dollar moves matter to Asian importers and to anyone who borrows in dollars. Higher oil prices add a complication for oil-importing economies such as Singapore.

The next steps are already on the calendar. The Fed lists November 18 as the release date for the minutes of the October 27 and 28 meeting. Minutes are a written record of the internal discussion, and they give a fuller picture than the statement and press conference. The next scheduled meeting is December 8 and 9, 2026.

The statement and the October 28 press conference will carry most of the new information. The minutes will show how divided or united the committee was. The December meeting will show whether the market's reading of the path holds up. Until then, the pricing is a snapshot of expectations, and those expectations have already shifted twice this month.