The US and Iran had a ceasefire through most of June. It's over. President Trump said so explicitly, and military actions that followed confirmed it. Oil prices jumped more than 2.5% as the latest strikes hit CBS News.

Here's the sequence. On June 26, a ship was attacked. The US struck Iranian targets the next day CENTCOM. Days earlier, on June 24, US forces had killed a senior ISIS leader in Syria—separate fighting that kept the whole region tense. More US strikes came on July 1, then again on July 7 CENTCOM. The military called this campaign Operation Epic Fury CENTCOM.

To understand why this matters now, you need to know the back story. A year ago, on June 22, 2025, the US struck Iranian nuclear sites. The Pentagon said later it was "historically successful" and took 15 years to plan Defense.gov. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described this current campaign as "laser-focused" strikes on military targets in March 2026 Defense.gov. By June 10, the Pentagon said it was planning major new strikes Defense.gov. So the late June and early July strikes didn't come out of nowhere. They came after more than a year of rising tension.

On July 7, something else happened that matters for oil. The US revoked Iran's permission to sell oil on world markets—basically bringing back sanctions. This happened the same day as the new strikes Reuters. That's important because it removes a chunk of potential supply from the world market, separate from any disruption caused by fighting. A ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around the same time, and Iran's leader said he would not negotiate unless the US stopped striking Reuters. Several people were hurt in the strikes.

Before July 7, oil had been fairly calm. Reuters reported oil prices were "up slightly" ahead of the long US holiday weekend on July 3, and peace talks were still described as ongoing Reuters. That changed fast. Reuters reported Iran was "flexing its control" of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes Reuters/Facebook. The US launched new strikes alongside the license revocation and a strike on a strategic Iranian island Reuters/Facebook. Iran's state broadcaster said eight armed forces members were killed CBS News.

Iran's government responded with harder rhetoric. Its foreign ministry called the US attacks a "gross violation" of the ceasefire and said they broke a treaty, warning of "decisive" retaliation Sky News. Its leader ruled out talks unless the US stopped striking.

Why did oil jump 2.5%? Two reasons stand out. One: traders are repricing the risk that the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil moves—could be disrupted. Two: the US brought back sanctions on Iranian oil sales, removing that oil from world markets. Together, these explain the price move. But there's something worth noting: no major oil fields in the Gulf have actually shut down yet. The price jump is about what traders think might happen, not what has happened. Keep watching shipping costs and insurance premiums for tanker ships crossing the Strait—those are better signals of real supply trouble than headline oil prices. Whether this turns into long-term war or another spike in an off-and-on conflict that's lasted over a year, nobody really knows yet.