Andy Burnham set to lead Labour after rivals step aside

Al Carns has decided not to run for Labour leader and told his colleagues to support Andy Burnham instead. This means Burnham is now the only Labour MP who has officially said he wants the job, with nominations opening on Thursday BBC News.

Carns, who had been defence minister until recently, told Sky News presenter Cathy Newman that a leadership contest would waste time Labour does not have. He said the party needed "to get on board" with Burnham, and that fighting among themselves would not help. He made these comments on 8 July, the day the story emerged BBC News.

Just days before, Carns had said he could not back Burnham without seeing more details about his plans for running the country. He said a conversation with Burnham on Tuesday changed his mind. After that meeting, he decided Burnham would "make the right decisions and move the country forward." Carns pointed to Burnham's time as Manchester's mayor — how he handled Covid, the response to the Manchester Arena attack, and the region's economic progress — as reasons for his support BBC News.

Carns shared his thinking on social media: "I'd hoped a leadership contest would give us the opportunity for a proper debate." This sounds more like regret at the timing than a change of heart about contests in general — he is not saying contests are a bad idea, just that now is not the moment BBC News.

Another senior Labour MP, Wes Streeting, had also considered running. He decided to back Burnham shortly after Sir Keir Starmer stepped down as prime minister and Labour leader. With both men now supporting him, Burnham is the only declared candidate as nominations begin.

How Labour leadership contests work

To get on the ballot, a candidate needs nominations from 20% of Labour's 403 MPs — that is 81 MPs. They also need backing from at least three affiliated socialist societies or trade unions, or from 5% of local party branches BBC News.

There is a numbers game that matters here. If Burnham gets 323 MP nominations — that is 80% of all Labour MPs — no other candidate can get the 81 they need to appear on the ballot. If that happens, Burnham would become Labour leader by 17 July and could be prime minister by 20 July, according to BBC News.

This rapid timetable exists because of how the vacancy came about. Starmer resigned as prime minister on the same day Burnham won a seat in the House of Commons through a by-election in Makerfield. Burnham announced he wanted to be leader when he arrived at Westminster BBC News. He and Starmer met for the first time since that by-election on 21 June, according to BBC News's live coverage at the time BBC News.

The timing of these events is worth examining. When Carns said days earlier that he wanted to see Burnham's detailed plans before deciding, that was the normal position for someone thinking about running for leader. His quick reversal, based on a single conversation, will make other undecided MPs think carefully about who they support. It is not entirely clear from Carns's public statements whether that conversation solved real questions about Burnham's policies, or simply convinced him that holding a contest now would not help Labour.

A leadership race with only one declared candidate is rare in modern Labour history. Contests usually have multiple candidates and weeks of hustings where members get to hear from and question all the runners. Burnham could go from backbencher to prime minister in about two weeks — a process that normally takes months. For MPs deciding this week, the real question is whether a contest, even a short one, is worth having. Carns has made his answer clear: it is not.

Nominations open on Thursday. How much support Burnham receives in the first few days will show whether Labour will have a proper contest, a token contest, or none at all.