Anthony Albanese is giving a big speech on artificial intelligence in Sydney this week. He's comparing AI to the shift to renewable energy — a major change for the whole country. The speech comes after months of government debate about how to handle AI, with different ministers wanting different approaches.

The speech will cover "the challenges and opportunities" of AI and what the government should do about it. The government wants AI to "earn its social licence" — basically, to win public trust — "driving growth without undercutting conditions, fragmenting our society or damaging our environment" The Guardian. Albanese will focus on safety, making sure AI doesn't destroy jobs unfairly, and the massive amount of electricity datacentres (the huge computer facilities that run AI) need. Health Minister Mark Butler says it will balance "guardrails and principles," especially around safety and privacy.

But there's something the speech won't cover: copyright rules for AI companies. That's the part worth paying attention to, because writers, musicians and publishers certainly will. The government has been quietly arguing about this for weeks ABC News. Instead of dealing with it head-on, the speech will just give "a broad picture" ABC News.

Here's what's been happening. AI companies want to use Australian writers', musicians' and publishers' work to train their software — without necessarily paying them or getting permission. The government has been weighing different options on whether to allow this or protect creators' rights The Guardian. Inside Labor, some MPs want to attract big tech investment (and the jobs that come with it), while others want to protect Australian creatives The Guardian. Albanese met with creative industry leaders before this week's speech, so he knows they're watching The Guardian.

Meanwhile, tech companies are already making their own deals. Microsoft and the media company Nine struck an AI agreement in early July that lets them work together without waiting for the government to set the rules The Guardian.

Documents released by the government show that Anthropic (a major AI company) has told Australia that not knowing what the rules will be is stopping them from investing more here The Guardian. This is the squeeze Albanese is stuck in: tech companies want clear rules so they know they can spend money on datacentres and equipment. But unions, creative workers and most Australians want promises that the rules won't just be written to suit whoever has the best-paid lobbyists.

Most Australians are actually pretty sceptical about AI. A poll from May found that 36% of voters think AI is more risky than beneficial, 41% see it as roughly equal, and only 22% reckon the benefits outweigh the risks The Guardian. That's why the government keeps talking about "social licence" rather than how much money AI could make — it's a safer way to talk to voters, whatever tech lobbyists are saying in private meetings.

Albanese did mention datacentres and AI back in February at an event in Melbourne PM.gov.au. But the argument inside government has gotten a lot hotter since then. Two ministers, Andrew Charlton and Tim Ayres, are doing the detailed policy work. People inside government say this is starting to look like what happened with social media — technology that moved faster than anyone could regulate it, and left governments scrambling ever since.

Labor said a year ago that it wanted to take a hands-on approach to AI development in Australia, an industry that could be worth billions of dollars. But by late June, some reports suggested datacentres and AI were becoming a real problem for Labor politically rather than just a story about growth and jobs ABC News.

This week's speech will be judged on a simple question: does it give tech companies the clarity they say they need, or will creatives come away believing the government has already decided to let AI companies use their work for free?