Oil prices rose sharply on July 22, 2026, after the United States announced a new round of military strikes against Iran. Brent crude, a key global oil price, went up $1.84, or 2.0%, to $92.85 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the main US oil price, climbed $1.67, also 2.0%, to $86.01 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Think of Brent and WTI as two thermometers for the same thing: the price of oil. Brent measures oil sold internationally. WTI measures oil produced in the US. When both jump at the same time, something big is affecting the whole market — not just one region.

The buying held steady through the day rather than fading. Brent's trading contract opened at $91.51 and reached $92.66 on July 22, Yahoo Finance data shows. Trading Economics recorded Brent at $92.10, up 1.20% from the previous close, with a 19.49% gain over the past 30 days and 34.44% over its longer comparison window, Trading Economics notes.

The climb has been fast but bumpy. Brent opened at $84.89 on July 17 with a session high of $88.32. By July 21, it opened at $88.89 and reached $91.97, per Yahoo Finance historical data. This reverses a sharp drop earlier in the month. On July 9, Brent settled at $76.30, down $1.72 or 2.2%, as worries about a slowing economy temporarily beat concerns about oil supply; WTI settled at $72, down $1.44 or 2.0%, Reuters reported. The next day, July 10, Brent slipped another 29 cents to $76.01 and WTI lost 67 cents to $71.41, Reuters noted.

Everything changed on July 13. Brent surged 9.6% to settle at $83.30, the largest daily percentage gain in that session, WSJ reported. The reason: growing fear that the Iran war was far from over. The next day, July 14, the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, which Reuters reported would reduce oil flows, Reuters stated.

The conflict started earlier in 2026. The United States launched military strikes against Iran, with Reuters reporting fresh strikes as early as July 9. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow channel between Iran and Oman that normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil — has been effectively closed or severely restricted for months. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil flows dropped to the low-70s percentage range of normal capacity amid the fighting, Reuters reported. Back on March 22, Brent futures settled up 3.26% at $112.19, the highest level since July 2022, Reuters noted.

Government data shows how far prices have swung. The Brent spot price averaged $85 per barrel in June 2026, down $22 from May and down $32 from its April 2026 peak, according to EIA STEO data. That April peak coincided with S&P Global Ratings raising its 2026 price assumptions to $95/bbl for WTI and $100/bbl for Brent, citing longer-than-expected supply disruptions, as S&P Global Ratings published on April 29.

Experts disagree sharply on where prices go next. J.P. Morgan Global Research published a bearish outlook expecting Brent to average around $60 per barrel for 2026 despite the recent spike, J.P. Morgan noted. The Brookings Institution estimated that a 10% decline in oil supply between the start of the Iran war and June 2026 could push Brent to $120 per barrel, Brookings observed.

The broader context here is that the gap between those two forecasts — $60 versus $120 — comes down to one question: how much oil can get through the Strait of Hormuz? Goldman's estimate of flows in the low-70s percent of normal means partial disruption, not a total cutoff. If the blockade tightens and flows drop toward the 10% decline that Brookings modeled, prices could head toward $120. If a ceasefire or de-escalation restores normal flows, the J.P. Morgan scenario — built on the idea that high prices destroy demand and slow the economy — comes back into play.

For businesses that need to manage oil price risk, the July 9–10 dip to $76 followed by the July 13 surge to $83.30 in a single day tells the story: supply shocks are hitting in sudden bursts tied to military and political events, not the gradual tightening that markets usually plan for.

In my view, the $92 level puts Brent within $8 of S&P Global's $100 assumption. Whether prices hold here or fall back toward the June average of $85 depends on whether the latest US strikes are a limited tactical move or a step toward shutting down more of the Gulf's oil flows. That distinction is not yet knowable from the public record.

For ordinary consumers, higher oil prices eventually show up at the gas pump, in heating bills, and in the cost of goods that get shipped by truck or plane. The steeper the rise and the longer it lasts, the more it eats into household budgets.