Prime Minister Andy Burnham has invited the leaders of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties to work together on fixing social care, ahead of a big speech on Wednesday, July 29 (The Guardian). Both opposition leaders are expected to send representatives to the talks. The speech will be Burnham's first since launching his bid to become prime minister (BBC).

Social care means the help adults get with everyday things like washing, dressing, and eating when they are older or disabled and can no longer manage on their own. In England, this system is struggling — underfunded and overstretched.

Burnham is not expected to unveil a finished plan in the speech. Instead, he will confirm plans to speed up an independent review led by Louise Casey (The Guardian). Casey will also launch the "Big Conversation on Care," an online platform where the public can share their views on the future of social care in England. The speech is also set to include an announcement giving more power to local mayors as part of a 10-year plan (BBC). No 10 described the forthcoming speech as evidence Burnham is "hitting the ground running" (BBC).

Ahead of the address, Burnham framed the initiative as something that rises above party politics: "We need a different kind of politics: problem-solving, not point-scoring" (The Guardian). He has stated he wants to bring "substantial change" to social care in England (BBC).

The direction he has in mind is clear. Burnham is understood to want a social care system that is free when you need it, just like the NHS. He thinks a "care costs cap" — a limit on how much any one person pays before the government steps in — is a less attractive option, though it would cost taxpayers less. Another option on the table is the Scottish model, where the government pays for personal care but individuals and families pay for their room and food in a care home (The Guardian).

The hardest part will be paying for it. When Burnham was health secretary under Gordon Brown, he proposed replacing inheritance tax (the tax paid on what you leave behind when you die) with a 10% charge on all estates to fund social care. Over the weekend before the speech, he did not rule out this 10% estate charge, which could raise as much as £18 billion (The Guardian). Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has already told Burnham not to raise taxes to fund reform (BBC). The Conservatives have set their own "red lines" on social care reform, and negative headlines about inheritance tax have already appeared ahead of Burnham's push (The Guardian).

Nigel Farage and his party, Reform UK, were not invited to the cross-party talks. That matters because Reform UK has a significant number of voters behind it.

The wider money picture is also tough. NIESR, an economic research organisation, has warned of "very difficult trade-offs" in the autumn budget if the Iran war keeps oil prices and inflation high (The Guardian). An £18 billion funding raise from estate taxation would need to survive both opposition resistance and a Treasury dealing with rising prices driven by war overseas.

The broader context here is that social care reform has defeated multiple prime ministers for over a decade. Theresa May's 2017 proposal — nicknamed the "dementia tax" — damaged her politically. Before that, a plan to cap individual care costs was watered down. The pattern is consistent: the problem is solvable on paper but politically toxic, because any realistic way to pay for it means higher taxes or shifting money from elsewhere, and both options scare politicians who face elections. Burnham's approach is different in its timing. Instead of presenting a finished plan for opponents to attack, he is starting with a consultation — the Casey review, the "Big Conversation," and cross-party talks. That pushes the politically dangerous moment of naming specific costs and taxes further down the road. Whether that delay is a smart strategy or a weakness depends on whether Badenoch and Davey see the process as genuine or as window dressing for a decision already made.

The push to give more power to mayors within the same 10-year plan ties together two things Burnham has long cared about. As a former mayor of Greater Manchester, he has argued that local leaders are better placed to improve public services. Putting social care into a system where local areas have more control could allow different regions to try different approaches. But it also raises questions about fairness — would someone in one part of the country get a different level of care than someone elsewhere? The Casey review will need to address that.

The Wednesday speech will not resolve the funding question. What it will show is whether Burnham can hold a cross-party coalition together through the consultation phase long enough to produce a plan that survives an autumn budget shaped by war-driven inflation and a Conservative opposition unwilling to budge on taxes.