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Victoria's New Leader Might Reroute Billions From a Giant Rail Tunnel

Elena MarquezPublished 2d ago4 min readBased on 12 sources
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Victoria's New Leader Might Reroute Billions From a Giant Rail Tunnel

Ben Carroll has been Premier of Victoria for just two days, and he's already raising questions about the state's biggest construction project. On Thursday, July 30, 2026, Carroll would not rule out moving billions of dollars away from the Suburban Rail Loop — a massive new train line for Melbourne — and did not deny reports that he plans to review the $34.5 billion project. Speaking at the Essendon tram depot, Carroll told reporters that "every dollar of my government will be invested where it delivers the greatest value for Victorians — and it will be invested responsibly, transparently and respectfully." (The Guardian)

The Suburban Rail Loop, or SRL, is a plan to build a 26km underground train tunnel connecting Cheltenham and Box Hill, two suburbs in Melbourne. The Victorian government has already committed about $11.8 billion to this section and signed $14.5 billion in contracts with construction companies. Two giant drills called tunnel-boring machines are already in the ground in Burwood and could start digging toward Glen Waverley within weeks. The federal government in Canberra has also pitched in $6 billion, including $3.8 billion from the budget in May 2026. (The Guardian)

On the same day Carroll spoke, an independent government office called the Parliamentary Budget Office released a report showing that cancelling the SRL would improve the state's budget by $21 billion over ten years. But getting out of the contracts would cost $1.8 billion in termination fees. That number gives political backing to anyone who wants to scale the project back. The state opposition leader, Jess Wilson, said the Coalition would pause and review the project if elected in November. (The Guardian)

The SRL was first promised by former Premier Daniel Andrews before the 2018 election. Carroll himself used to be a strong supporter. As Minister for Public Transport and later Deputy Premier, he appeared in government announcements praising the project's potential to transform Melbourne's suburbs. A page on the government's website dated July 28 mentions Carroll becoming premier alongside the SRL and North East Link projects, and says "we're making work from home a right your boss can't take away." Andrews publicly said Carroll "can win" the November state election. (The Guardian; premier.vic.gov.au)

Carroll said the SRL would be discussed by his cabinet, which is the group of senior ministers who make government decisions. He also flagged "sensible changes" to laws that would give workers the right to work from home two days a week. Those laws were a key policy of the previous government under Jacinta Allan. (The Guardian; The Guardian)

Carroll spoke to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the first time as premier on Wednesday, July 29. He said they did not discuss moving federal money into other projects. That matters because $3.8 billion of the federal contribution was only confirmed in May, and the federal government would need to agree before any of its money could be redirected. (The Guardian)

Carroll became the confirmed leader of Victoria's Labor Party on July 30, succeeding Jacinta Allan after a meeting of the party's elected members. (ABC News)

The bigger picture here is that the budget report gives Carroll a financial argument for adjusting the state's spending plans before the November election. But the contracts are signed, the drills are in the ground, and walking away from $14.5 billion in commitments would trigger $1.8 billion in penalties. Carroll's choice of words — "sensible changes" and "greatest value" — keeps his options open. He could scale back the project without fully cancelling it, while still claiming he's carrying on the vision of Daniel Andrews. The danger is that uncertainty could worry the construction companies, the federal government, and voters who supported the project. The upside for Carroll is that calling for a review lets him frame himself as financially responsible without abandoning a project he once championed.

His willingness to also signal changes to the work-from-home laws points to a broader readiness to put his own mark on the government's agenda. Taken together, these day-two moves suggest a premier who wants to act quickly. Whether that means he'll scale the rail project back or ultimately keep it going will depend on cabinet discussions he's mentioned but not yet scheduled, and on how the federal government reacts to any plan to shift its $6 billion contribution.