Kenney Ties UCP Defeat in Calgary-Shaw to Separation Referendum
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney says the United Conservative Party's by-election loss in Calgary-Shaw is a warning about the Oct. 19 separation referendum. The Globe and Mail
The New Democrats won the seat on Monday night, Sept. 14. Kenney said early Tuesday, Sept. 15, that the result sends a strong message about the referendum's impact on conservative supporters.
Writing on X, Kenney said those planning to vote to send a message by starting the separation process should take note of an NDP win in what he described as the most conservative part of urban Canada. The message was blunt. He framed Calgary-Shaw as territory the UCP should hold comfortably.
Kenney said a vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats. He said the debate on quitting Canada is alienating conservative voters who love Canada. At the same time, he said, it is pushing disaffected nationalist supporters toward left-centre opponents such as the NDP.
Conservative strategist Ken Boessenkool echoed the criticism. He called the loss a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with what he characterized as a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum.
The referendum question asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a second binding referendum on setting up the process to quit Confederation. Premier Danielle Smith has said she had no choice but to put separation on the ballot to put the contentious issue to rest. A UCP-led committee reviewing the Forever Canadian petition had recommended a referendum question on whether Alberta should remain part of Canada. CTV News
Elections Alberta set Election Day in Calgary-Shaw for Monday, Sept. 14. Elections Alberta Unofficial results were reported as received after voting closed at 8 p.m. that evening. Official results are to be announced on Thursday, Sept. 24. The Canadian Press account of Kenney's comments was published Sept. 15. Global News
Calgary remains the province's decisive electoral battleground. In the 2023 general election won by the UCP under Smith, the party took 12 of 26 Calgary seats. The next provincial election is set for Oct. 18, 2027.
Kenney's intervention follows months of positioning. In February, he said the governing UCP caucus has "no business" signing a petition to force a vote on Alberta quitting Canada. Former NDP premier Rachel Notley has blamed Smith's UCP government for foisting what Notley calls a separatist agenda on Albertans. Notley and Kenney are now co-chairing a Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign. Smith, for her part, proposed a sovereignty act during the race for the UCP leadership.
The broader context here is about coalition management rather than constitutional law. For expert readers, Calgary-Shaw matters less for one seat than for what it suggests about turnout and vote transfers. A separation ballot question can mobilize pro-Canada conservatives and sovereignty-minded voters in opposite directions. It can also give the NDP a second-preference opening among voters who might otherwise stay with the UCP or stay home. Kenney is wagering that federal Conservatives will read the same signal. A provincial debate that suppresses UCP margins in Calgary could, on his logic, soften Conservative margins in Alberta as�well, creating room for Liberals in a small but meaningful number of urban ridings.
