September CPI Reaccelerates to 3.7% Ahead of October FOMC
The U.S. all items Consumer Price Index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending in September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the prior period. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September 2026 results on October 14. BLS CPI release
That headline year-over-year acceleration is the number for pricing and policy. It defines the inflation side of the data set entering the late-October Federal Open Market Committee decision.
In a separate release issued the same day, the Bureau reported a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All employees/consumers in its September 2026 Real Earnings release. BLS Real Earnings release
The inflation releases followed a soft September labor report. Payrolls rose by 29,000, missing economists' expectation of 90,000. After that jobs data, futures implied about a 25% chance of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Reuters
That futures read is a function of 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. The CME FedWatch tool tracks probabilities of changes to the Federal Reserve rate on that basis.
On scheduling, the Federal Reserve lists a two-day FOMC Meeting on October 27-28, 2026. The minutes for the September 15-16, 2026 meeting, published October 6, state the next Committee meeting would be held on "Tuesday-Wednesday, October 27-28, 2026." Federal Reserve minutes The Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed, with calendars, statements and minutes published for 2021-2027. Federal Reserve calendars
The broader context here is a two-sided surprise into the same meeting. Headline inflation reaccelerated year over year. Payroll growth undershot consensus by a wide margin. That combination complicates the reaction function.
Looking at what this means for market pricing, the sequencing matters. The 25% October hike probability cited after payrolls predated the October 14 CPI release. Futures-implied odds will now have to absorb a firmer year-over-year inflation print. That math matters.
For real earnings arithmetic, the issue is direct. Nominal pay growth less the CPI change determines the real outcome. A 0.6 percent CPI gain sets a high bar for any nominal increase to translate into purchasing-power growth in the reference period. Timing matters too, with both BLS releases landing less than two weeks before policymakers convene.
