The governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First would hold 62 seats to the opposition's 58 in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, the third consecutive survey in the series to produce that seat split, according to RNZ.

The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research for the NZ Taxpayers' Union, put Labour on 31.5 percent (down 0.7 points), National on 30.5 percent (up 0.4), NZ First on 10.8 percent (down 0.6), the Greens on 10.4 percent (down 1.1), ACT on 6.9 percent (down 0.9) and Te Pāti Māori on 3.4 percent (up 0.3), per RNZ's report of the figures. Translated into seats, that would give Labour 41, National 39, NZ First 14, Greens 13, ACT 9 and Te Pāti Māori 4 — an opposition bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 58 against a National-ACT-NZ First coalition on 62.

Labour leads National on the party vote by a single point, but the arithmetic of a three-party opposition bloc up against a three-party government bloc leaves the coalition with the working majority, as it has in the previous two Curia surveys in this run. The Taxpayers' Union's own tagging of the poll notes National recorded a small uptick in support while both of its coalition partners, ACT and NZ First, lost ground — a pattern consistent with the topline shifts reported by RNZ.

On preferred prime minister, Chris Hipkins polled 19.2 percent and Christopher Luxon 19.1 percent, a gap of 0.1 points that sits well inside any plausible margin of error for a sub-sample question of this kind. Winston Peters followed on 11.8 percent, with David Seymour on 5.1 percent and Chlöe Swarbrick on 4.6 percent.

Curia surveyed a random sample of 1000 adult New Zealanders by phone — landlines and mobiles — and online, between Wednesday 1 and Sunday 5 July 2026. The maximum margin of error is put at plus or minus 3.1 percent, standard for a sample of this size at a 95 percent confidence level. RNZ's article, the only source for these specific figures, contains no direct link to a Taxpayers' Union press release setting out the full data tables; its sole hyperlink points back to RNZ's coverage of an earlier poll in the same series.

That sourcing gap is worth flagging for anyone wanting to check crosstabs, regional breakdowns or undecided-voter handling — none of which appear in the RNZ writeup. The Taxpayers' Union maintains a standing polling archive and a tagged poll page, but as of writing neither surfaces a dated release specific to this July round with the same figures cited by RNZ, meaning the RNZ report is currently the only dated, citable primary account of this particular poll's results.

The result sits within a run of Curia polling that has swung sharply over the past year. Reuters reported in October 2025 that a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll had the then-government short of the seats needed to govern — a finding from before National's current term consolidated. By March 2026, Reuters recorded National support dropping 2.9 points to 28.4 percent in the same monthly series, a low point in the party's Curia trend. National's 30.5 percent this round, and the coalition's third straight 62-seat reading, would mark a partial recovery from that March trough, though the party vote gap with Labour that opened over summer has narrowed rather than closed.

Reuters has tracked the Curia series intermittently since at least 2023, when it reported on National's then-leadership contest and monetary policy positioning ahead of that year's election. The wire service's periodic pickup of Curia numbers gives the series an international audience beyond the domestic press gallery, though its cadence of coverage is driven by newsworthiness rather than a fixed monthly cycle.

For anyone tracking government stability rather than headline party-vote movements, the seat projection is the more load-bearing number here. A repeated 62-58 outcome across three consecutive polls suggests more stability in the coalition's notional majority than the month-to-month churn in individual party shares would imply on its own — Labour's lead on the party vote has not, on these numbers, translated into an opposition majority, because the combined Green and Te Pāti Māori vote has not grown enough to offset NZ First and ACT's smaller but still-functional seat hauls. Whether that holds through to the next public survey, and whether Curia or another pollster publishes fuller methodological detail behind these particular topline figures, are separate questions the current reporting does not resolve.