Chris Hipkins told RNZ's Morning Report that Labour has not lost momentum despite a drop in support recorded in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll. Labour polled at 34 percent, down 1.6 points since the March survey. National fell 2.1 points to 28.7 percent RNZ.

Hipkins framed the movement against the longer arc since the 2023 election, telling Morning Report Labour had gained roughly six points of support over that period. He called National "the most unpopular first-term party under MMP" and described Labour as "probably one of the most popular first term oppositions since MMP was introduced" RNZ. Whether that framing survives contact with the seat count is a separate question — on the poll's numbers, the governing coalition would still return 61 seats against 59 for the combined opposition RNZ.

That arithmetic matters more than either major party's topline number this cycle. New Zealand First recorded its strongest result in the Reid Research series in nine years RNZ, which means the coalition's parliamentary majority is currently being carried by a support partner rather than by National itself. For a first-term government, that is not a comfortable position twelve months from an election, and it is the detail Hipkins' "most unpopular first-term party" line is designed to draw attention to.

Hipkins was careful, in the same interview, to head off any suggestion that Labour's own slide reflects stalling momentum since January 2025. He rejected that characterisation directly, arguing instead that the campaign proper was "just getting underway" and that Labour was only now starting to roll out its own policy platform RNZ. That is a standard defensive posture for an opposition leader facing a soft poll — attribute the dip to timing rather than substance, and point to the incumbent's larger fall as the more newsworthy trend.

On policy, Hipkins used the interview to go after the government's KiwiSaver settings, calling National's approach "half-baked" and arguing it would push low-income earners into significant financial hardship RNZ. He also confirmed Labour's in-principle support for New Zealand joining discussions on the Ocean of Peace Alliance, the Pacific security arrangement between Australia and Fiji, giving the government some bipartisan cover on that front even as the domestic contest sharpens RNZ.

National's response has, so far, been to hold the line on leadership. Brigitte Morten, a National Party volunteer who is managing director at law firm Franks Ogilvie and a former senior ministerial adviser under a previous National-led government, said the poll would not trigger a change at the top RNZ. That is the expected line from a party insider rather than a caucus whip count, and it is worth reading as reassurance rather than confirmation that the question isn't being asked internally.

The wider political read here is that both major parties are shedding support simultaneously, with minor parties — New Zealand First chief among them — absorbing the difference. That is a familiar MMP dynamic in the run-up to a campaign year, when voters start shopping around before settling closer to polling day. It is also the dynamic that makes seat projections, rather than party vote alone, the more useful measure of where government formation currently sits. A 61-59 split is tight enough that neither bloc can claim clear momentum, whatever the leaders say on Morning Report.

RNZ's poll series with Reid Research has been running since April 2025 RNZ, giving this survey enough of a track record now to make trend comparisons — like the nine-year high for New Zealand First — meaningful rather than a single data point. The March-to-July shift for both major parties is the first genuinely comparable movement the series has captured heading into what both sides are now openly calling the start of the campaign.