Robinhood is in discussions with Crypto.com to expand its footprint in prediction markets, a move that could place the retail brokerage in more direct competition with Kalshi, the dedicated prediction-market platform that has dominated the category's recent growth cycle. The talks, reported July 24, come as Robinhood's prediction markets business approaches what analysts say could be an inflection point in its revenue mix. WSJ

A Bernstein analyst projected in July 2026 that the quarter ending June 2026 could be the first in which Robinhood's prediction markets revenue surpasses its crypto revenue. Bloomberg That projection frames the Crypto.com discussions within a broader strategic logic: prediction markets are no longer a side product for Robinhood but a revenue line that is converging with, and may overtake, a business segment the company has invested in heavily.

Robinhood's path to this point has been deliberate. In September 2025, the company was exploring launching its prediction markets product outside the United States, signaling an international ambition for the category beyond its domestic rollout. Bloomberg The following month, a Robinhood executive stated the company is open to deals to grow its prediction markets business. Reuters The Crypto.com talks, then, follow a publicly acknowledged willingness to pursue acquisitions or partnerships in this vertical rather than building organically.

The competitive dimension centers on Kalshi. A deal between Robinhood and Crypto.com could put Robinhood in more direct competition with Kalshi, which operates a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. WSJ Kalshi's profile has risen alongside growing retail engagement with event contracts, from political outcomes to economic data bets. The interest from Robinhood and Crypto.com reflects an effort to capture share in a category that has moved from niche curiosity to material revenue driver.

For market participants, the stakes are structural. Prediction markets occupy a regulatory gray zone between gambling, derivatives, and securities, and the competitive landscape is still being shaped by how regulators treat event contracts. Kalshi has navigated that terrain by operating under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market. Robinhood's prediction markets product operates within its brokerage infrastructure, and a partnership or deal with Crypto.com, a digital-currency exchange, would add a crypto-native distribution channel to that mix. How regulators view the combination of a retail brokerage, a crypto exchange, and prediction-market exposure in a single relationship is an open question the talks will eventually have to answer if they progress.

The broader context here is revenue diversification. Robinhood's business has historically been concentrated in equities and options, with crypto trading providing a volatile but significant secondary stream. Prediction markets emerging as a revenue line that rivals crypto speaks to both the rapid growth of event-contract volume and the compression of crypto trading fees as the exchange landscape commoditizes. A Bernstein projection that prediction markets revenue could exceed crypto revenue in a single quarter is a signal about the rate of that growth, not a forecast of sustained dominance. Crypto revenue has been cyclical, tied to price action in Bitcoin and other digital assets. Prediction markets revenue, by contrast, is tied to event cycles, which have their own cadence. Whether one durably surpasses the other will depend on volume sustainability across both cycles.

The talks with Crypto.com are at an early stage and may not result in a deal. What is clear from Robinhood's own statements and analyst projections is that the company views prediction markets as a strategic priority, not an experiment. The willingness to partner with a crypto exchange to accelerate that priority suggests Robinhood is weighing speed of market entry against the regulatory and operational complexity of building additional prediction-market infrastructure internally.